Is The Energy Transition Unraveling—Part 1

The oil and gas industry in the U.S. is affirming President Trump’s goal of producing more energy and selling more oil and gas to the world. But China is doing something else: it’s exporting massive amounts of renewable hardware, like solar panels, EVs, batteries, and wind turbines (interestingly, China is still importing oil and gas).

Why is this important? Because the discrepancy may have geopolitical repercussions that disadvantage the U.S.

In case you’ve missed it: China has a stranglehold on selling clean tech. 80% of the world’s solar panels, and 60% of the planet’s wind turbines, are produced in China. The country also supplies 70% of the world’s EVs and 75% of batteries. Only five years ago, a frequent argument was the U.S. doesn’t need to reduce its carbon emissions until China gets on board with its own transition program.

Energy-Related Exports.

The competition is about the energy export market in the two largest economies. The U.S. wants to sell its oil and gas, while China is pushing to sell its clean energy technologies—two very different positions.

Note: the U.S. is a strong seller of coal, but this wasn’t included in the comparison. Perhaps reflecting a dose of realism: electricity production by renewables just passed coal production, on a global basis, for the first time. Despite Trump’s efforts to resurrect it, coal’s detrimental health effects on lungs and heart place it near the rear of the future of the energy race—only 16% of U.S. electricity is now produced from coal.

Let’s consider the U.S. first. Now a major exporter, the country sold $80 billion of oil and gas through July of 2025 This is a remarkable result, since exports of both oil and gas were prohibited until 2016. The year 2016 began a golden age for natural gas exports in the form of LNG, which culminated in saving Europe when Russian gas supplies were cut during its war on Ukraine.

Now consider China. PV solar panels, EVs, and batteries (mostly EV batteries), claimed a record in August of $20 billion in exports, according to Ember (wind turbines and grid-scale batteries were minor fractions). Through July of 2025, total exports amounted to $120 billion.

The Export Race.

China is winning this energy-related export race, by $40 million. Same thing in 2024, when China won by $30 million, despite a record year for U.S. oil exports.

The solar story is a strange one. The price of solar panels has fallen dramatically in the last two years, which lowered the total export revenue by 50%. But the total power capacity shipped out was a record: 46 gigawatts in August 2025.

Where is all this clean tech going? The answer is to emerging markets. Imports of solar panels to African nations jumped by 60% in the year ending June 2025. Twenty-one countries in Africa listed record imports in this period. South Africa, a coal-based country, was the largest importer. This is evidence that renewables can be cheaper and reliable enough for emerging economies. More than half of EV exports from China went to countries outside the richer OECD.

China Gains Influence.

China’s geopolitical influence is a concern, as we know from the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and other efforts to challenge the traditional dominance of the U.S. and Europe. It’s a good bet that China’s influence amongst emerging countries will grow as its clean tech exports soar, in volume if not in costs.

A good question to ask is: which line of exports, U.S. or Chinese, stands to benefit receiving countries more? From the U.S, oil and gas are products that are consumed, which means when you buy them and use them, they are gone. On the other hand, clean tech products from China, such as solar PV and wind turbines and batteries, are hardware. These are used to make electricity over and over again, for decades.

This is reminiscent of the old saying: you can help a poor man by buying him a fish, or by purchasing a fishing pole. Which is better?