OG bitcoin whale bets $900 million against market rally

An OG crypto investor who surfaced two months ago with about $11 billion worth of Bitcoin has opened almost $900 million in short positions against Bitcoin and Ether. The whale has bet on a market correction even after optimism for the so-called Uptober.

According to blockchain data platform Onchain Lens, the whale returned to trading on Thursday with a $360 million Bitcoin transfer attracting attention from other crypto investors. On Friday, the whale opened a $600 million short position on Bitcoin and a leveraged short worth over $300 million on Ether. 

Crypto traders join the OG whale to predict a short-term decline

Here’s where it gets even wilder: the whale opened an 8x leveraged short position on Bitcoin on the decentralized exchange Hyperliquid. The massive short bets signal the whale’s confidence in an incoming correction. 

However, the thesis stands to be invalidated if Bitcoin’s price rises above $133,760, its liquidation threshold. If Bitcoin’s price falls by just a small percentage, he could make tens of millions. However, if the price rises instead, losses could come just as quickly, and the position could be liquidated, wiping out his margin instantly.

The whale also opened a $330 million 12-times leveraged short position on Ether, with a liquidation price of $4,613. Currently, the position shows an unrealized profit of $2.6 million.

As the crypto world attentively watches this high-stakes gamble—half genius, part madness—everyone is on edge. This is not the time for a whale to take such a risk, especially when Bitcoin has been performing well.

Some analysts say he’s anticipating a market correction, a natural dip after months of gains. Others think it could be a psychological play, a move to scare smaller traders into selling, creating the drop he’s betting on.

To that end, the whale’s short bets may inspire more large investors to follow suit and bet on the price decline of the leading crypto coins. In August, nine whale addresses acquired a cumulative $456 million worth of Ether, after the $11 billion Bitcoin whale rotated $5 billion of his Bitcoin into ETH. 

According to analyst and early Bitcoin adopter Willy Woo, large-scale selling from previously dormant Bitcoin whales was among the main factors limiting BTC’s price action in August.

Still, it’s not just this one whale making moves. Most crypto traders are also positioning for a short-term decline in the crypto market. According to blockchain data from CoinAnk, over 52% of BTC holders across all exchanges are currently short, meaning that they are betting on Bitcoin’s price decline, while 47% remain long. 

Similarly, about 51% of Ether traders have also shorted the world’s second-largest crypto coin, expecting a decline.

Analysts say the “Uptober” narrative is still intact

BTC and ETH’s volatility has picked up, likely in expectation of another Fed rate cut later this month. Polymarket bettors price in a 91% chance that the Fed will reduce rates by 25 basis points at the Oct. 28-29 meeting, even as the ongoing government shutdown has delayed key data releases. 

It has been a challenging market to trade in, as Bitcoin’s price has been swinging sharply. Following a late Thursday drop from $123,000 to $120,000, BTC has recovered to trade around $121,943. On the other hand, Ethereum is down almost 1% over the last day and 2.7% for the week. 

According to on-chain data, US spot Ethereum ETFs saw $8.54 million in net outflows on Oct. 9, breaking a run of steady inflows. BlackRock’s ETHA ETF still posted $39.29 million in new inflows, but withdrawals from Fidelity of $30.26 million and Bitwise withdrawals of $8.07 million turned the total negative.

The shift came as investors rotated back toward Bitcoin, which saw nearly $198 million in inflows on the same day. Even after this pause, Ethereum ETFs have seen strong institutional interest, with net inflows of over $1.3 billion during the first week of October. 

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