Nobel Peace Prize organizers probing insider trading on Polymarket

Norwegian authorities are investigating a potential insider trading incident related to the Nobel Peace Prize on Polymarket.

Organizers of the Nobel Peace Prize, which announced its winner as Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, have been alerted to unusual betting activity favoring Machado as the winner.

The potential insider trading happened on Polymarket, a decentralized predictions marketplace that hit international headlines during the U.S. presidential elections in 2024. Users on the platform can place bets on various events, including politics, sports, and markets.

Nobel Peace Prize insider trading on Polymarket?

Per a Bloomberg report, the activity witnessed in the hours leading to the Nobel Peace Prize winner being announced has prompted a probe in Norway.

Authorities are looking into whether insiders tapped into privileged information to profit from the announcement made earlier on Friday. Polymarket Whales, an account that tracks unusual activity on the platform, posted about the incident late Thursday.

Odds of Machado win soared to 70% within hours

Notably, details show trading activity on bets picking Machado flared about 11 hours to the announcement. Odds of Machado winning on the predictions platform had jumped from under 2% to well over 70% in the hours ahead of her victory.

Since the bet opened in July, odds hovered below the 2% line, with fluctuations to near zero. But on Thursday, October 9, 2025, the market saw an unprecedented spike in activity. Odds shot up to 43% by around 1:00 a.m. local time, and then climbed to over 70% within the next hour.

The Nobel Peace Prize committee is tasked with keeping the identity of the winner under wraps. But it appears individuals with privileged information used it to make up to $90,000 in profit.

Suspected insider activity might have helped an account created in the past 10 days make money.