Turkey’s Air Force Is At A Crossroads

Turkey has grand plans for its air force’s future. In the long term, it seeks fifth-generation stealth fighters. In the short to medium term, it wants to ensure it has adequate 4.5-generation jets so its fighter fleet doesn’t become obsolescence in the interim.

“I hope the F-35 issue will be resolved and CAATSA sanctions will be lifted,” Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan told reporters last week.

Under the first Trump administration, the U.S. suspended Turkey from the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program, banned it from buying any of the stealth fighters, and imposed sanctions under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act. It took these punitive measures in retaliation for Turkey’s acquisition of sophisticated S-400 air defense missile systems from Russia, which Ankara received in July 2019.

The Turkish president met with President Trump on a visit to the White House on September 25. Trump suggested he could remove sanctions and end the F-35 ban quickly. Despite their cordial meeting, the issue remains unresolved, at least for now.

Turkey previously sought 100 F-35As for its air force before the 2019 ban. Now it wants 40. Turkish Defense Minister Yasar Guler dubiously claimed last year that Ankara’s progress in developing its indigenous TF Kaan changed Washington’s stance on selling Turkey F-35.

“When the Americans saw that we could produce the Kaan aircraft, their thoughts changed a little,” he said on November 26, 2024. “They state that they can give F-35s.”

But even with its homegrown Kaan, Turkey needs some American assistance. As an interim solution, Ankara plans on powering the initial batch of these aircraft, slated to roll off the assembly line around 2028, with American General Electric F110 engines, the same engine that powers the F-16. Turkey doesn’t expect full development of its domestically-made TF-35000 engine until at least 2032.

CAATSA sanctions are complicating this plan. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan acknowledged in late September that the license Turkey needs for the F110s “is stuck in Congress.”

“The license must be granted for the engines to arrive so that production of the Kaan can begin,” he said.

Turkish state-run media promptly reported that development of the Kaan continues as planned and that it won’t become dependent on any single foreign engine supplier. It cited the head of the Presidency of Defense Industries, which the U.S. imposed CAATSA sanctions on in late 2020, Haluk Gorgun. Gorgun stressed that only the initial batch of Kaan fighters will have a foreign engine while the mass-produced models will all enter service fitted with Turkey’s TF-35000.

Turkey also aims to export the TF Kaan. Without an indigenous engine, Ankara would first require the permission of the U.S. or whichever foreign country supplied the engine before exporting the aircraft. Washington previously blocked a multi-billion-dollar Turkish sale of T129 ATAK attack helicopters to Pakistan.

Entering the 2030s, the development of the Kaan and a parallel acquisition of F-35s, if possible, are crucial for modernizing Turkey’s air force. Both stealth aircraft would form the technological spearhead of the Turkish Air Force as it gradually begins phasing out its F-16 fleet. Over 250 F-16s of varying models, Block 30s to Block 50/52s, presently form the backbone of Turkey’s present all-American fighter fleet.

Turkey ordered 40 modern Block 70 F-16s in October 2021 and 79 modernization kits to keep its existing fleet up-to-date. It has since revised this order, canceling the kits, which has reduced the deal’s overall cost from an estimated $23 billion to $7 billion. Ankara has already started updating F-16s with a locally developed modernization program called Ozgur. Furthermore, it has since pursued an acquisition of 40 Eurofighter Typhoons.

In line with its prioritization of developing the Kaan, Turkey has reportedly considered only acquiring the F-16’s F-110 engines rather than new aircraft and armaments. Analysts have already expressed doubt that Washington would authorize a sale consisting solely of the F-16 engines.

Buying 120 foreign fighter jets of three different models from two countries is a big commitment for any country. Therefore, reports of Turkey revising some of these deals are unsurprising.

It’s already clear that Ankara’s aim for the 2030s is to field a fleet of stealth fighters—either the TF Kaan with an indigenous engine, or the Kaan along with the combat-proven F-35. For the rest of the 2020s, it knows its air force needs 4.5-generation stopgap solutions. The F-16 Block 70 was one such solution, but Turkey seems hesitant about investing in both new F-16s and an equal number of expensive new Eurofighters.

Interestingly, according to a recent report from Middle East Eye, Turkey’s not happy with the undisclosed price proposed by the United Kingdom for the modern Eurofighter Tranche 4 fighters it’s seeking. Ankara also wants the jets as soon as possible. Consequently, according to the report, it’s looking into buying Qatar’s 24 Tranche 3A Eurofighters so it can field Typhoons considerably sooner.

While Ankara has played down such reports, it maintains close military ties with Qatar, which has acquired three Western 4.5-generation fighter types in the past decade. Under a training agreement, Qatar can deploy fighters to Turkish airbases. Turkey has F-16s stationed in Qatar. Doha has noticeably ordered more Rafales to date than Eurofighters, which may mean it would have little problem selling its Typhoons since it could acquire newer models in the future if it wanted. Incidentally, Turkey previously criticized Greece for buying some of its Rafales from France secondhand.

Either way, Turkey undoubtedly seeks a swift delivery of Eurofighters as an interim solution until it finally fields a fifth-generation fighter—or at least an indigenous Kaan with similar capabilities to the KF-21 Boramae stealth fighter presently under development in South Korea. It may have concluded that Block 70 F-16s aren’t worth the long delivery time, especially if it can already upgrade an adequate number of its existing F-16s domestically under Ozgur for a significantly lower price.

Many of the details remain unclear. On the other hand, it has become increasingly clear that Ankara is in the midst of making pivotal decisions about its air force’s future. And whatever decisions it ultimately makes will likely have substantial ramifications for Turkish airpower for decades to come.