On-chain is still mid-zone, DXY is capped, and spot bid > mapping the $210k base case and the $280k extension into 2026.Continue reading on Coinmonks »On-chain is still mid-zone, DXY is capped, and spot bid > mapping the $210k base case and the $280k extension into 2026.Continue reading on Coinmonks »

Compression Before Lift-Off: Bitcoin’s Late-Cycle Setup for a Q4 ATH

2025/10/13 15:09

On-chain is still mid-zone, DXY is capped, and spot bid > mapping the $210k base case and the $280k extension into 2026.

Michael P. Di Fulvio
6 min read
·
Just now

--

Share

Press enter or click to view image in full size
https://www.tradingview.com/u/Miked3482/

Executive Summary

  • Market structure: BTC is holding the weekly mid-band with higher lows above the SMA-20 and well above the SMA-50, signaling trend continuation after a volatility squeeze.
  • Macro overlay: A heavy/sideways DXY and a gentle M2 upslope continue to underwrite risk assets—supportive but not euphoric.
  • On-chain valuations: MVRV-Z and Puell remain mid-cycle, leaving room before classic blow-off zones. Realized Price keeps stair-stepping up as cost basis accretes.
  • Base case: Break and hold above prior band high points to a Q4 ATH push toward ~$210k.
  • Extension case: If institutional spot demand persists and DXY stays capped, the cycle can stretch into Q2 2026, with a measured path to $280k.
  • Risk: Policy shocks (trade/FX) and a premature buildup of derivatives leverage without spot sponsorship.

TradFi Recap

A tariff headline shock rattled equities; BTC and gold outperformed on the day. Investor flows into

Market Opportunity
Aethir Logo
Aethir Price(ATH)
$0.008706
$0.008706$0.008706
+1.31%
USD
Aethir (ATH) Live Price Chart
Disclaimer: The articles reposted on this site are sourced from public platforms and are provided for informational purposes only. They do not necessarily reflect the views of MEXC. All rights remain with the original authors. If you believe any content infringes on third-party rights, please contact [email protected] for removal. MEXC makes no guarantees regarding the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the content and is not responsible for any actions taken based on the information provided. The content does not constitute financial, legal, or other professional advice, nor should it be considered a recommendation or endorsement by MEXC.

You May Also Like

The Channel Factories We’ve Been Waiting For

The Channel Factories We’ve Been Waiting For

The post The Channel Factories We’ve Been Waiting For appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Visions of future technology are often prescient about the broad strokes while flubbing the details. The tablets in “2001: A Space Odyssey” do indeed look like iPads, but you never see the astronauts paying for subscriptions or wasting hours on Candy Crush.  Channel factories are one vision that arose early in the history of the Lightning Network to address some challenges that Lightning has faced from the beginning. Despite having grown to become Bitcoin’s most successful layer-2 scaling solution, with instant and low-fee payments, Lightning’s scale is limited by its reliance on payment channels. Although Lightning shifts most transactions off-chain, each payment channel still requires an on-chain transaction to open and (usually) another to close. As adoption grows, pressure on the blockchain grows with it. The need for a more scalable approach to managing channels is clear. Channel factories were supposed to meet this need, but where are they? In 2025, subnetworks are emerging that revive the impetus of channel factories with some new details that vastly increase their potential. They are natively interoperable with Lightning and achieve greater scale by allowing a group of participants to open a shared multisig UTXO and create multiple bilateral channels, which reduces the number of on-chain transactions and improves capital efficiency. Achieving greater scale by reducing complexity, Ark and Spark perform the same function as traditional channel factories with new designs and additional capabilities based on shared UTXOs.  Channel Factories 101 Channel factories have been around since the inception of Lightning. A factory is a multiparty contract where multiple users (not just two, as in a Dryja-Poon channel) cooperatively lock funds in a single multisig UTXO. They can open, close and update channels off-chain without updating the blockchain for each operation. Only when participants leave or the factory dissolves is an on-chain transaction…
Share
BitcoinEthereumNews2025/09/18 00:09
‘Sinners’ Earns 16 Oscar Nominations, Shattering All-Time Record

‘Sinners’ Earns 16 Oscar Nominations, Shattering All-Time Record

The post ‘Sinners’ Earns 16 Oscar Nominations, Shattering All-Time Record appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Topline “Sinners” shattered a 75-year-old record
Share
BitcoinEthereumNews2026/01/23 02:34
‘Return To Silent Hill’ Is The Worst-Reviewed Video Game Movie In 19 Years

‘Return To Silent Hill’ Is The Worst-Reviewed Video Game Movie In 19 Years

The post ‘Return To Silent Hill’ Is The Worst-Reviewed Video Game Movie In 19 Years appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Return to Silent Hil Return to Silent Hil
Share
BitcoinEthereumNews2026/01/23 02:19