Analysts look to ASML Q3 report for benefits of AI spending and data center surge

ASML, one of the world’s top suppliers of advanced chipmaking machines, is set to benefit from a wave of AI data center investments as it prepares to release its third-quarter earnings report on Wednesday.

The company’s tools are vital for producing high-performance chips used by Nvidia, TSMC, and Samsung, and analysts expect rising orders to signal a new phase of growth for the Dutch manufacturer.

The semiconductor firm will publish its Q3 results on Wednesday, according to ASML’s investor calendar. Its performance is seen as a key indicator of global semiconductor health, and new AI-driven megadeals between technology companies and chipmakers are giving investors fresh optimism about the demand for ASML’s lithography systems.

AI data center spending pushes new chip equipment orders

Big tech companies, such as Meta, Oracle, and Microsoft, are investing billions of dollars in building massive data centers to power their advanced AI computer systems. These companies are signing massive contracts with chip suppliers such as Nvidia, AMD, Intel, and Samsung, which depend heavily on ASML for their chip parts.

Investors are now scrambling for ASML’s stock, and since September 2, the company’s shares have increased by about 32% (double the 15% rise of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index in the same period). These investors expect that more chipmakers will rush to order ASML’s machines to expand their production capacity as more companies worldwide build data centers to run AI systems.

Analysts from research firm Visible Alpha say ASML’s new bookings for the third quarter could reach €5.36 billion. ASML’s total bookings reached €9.48 billion in the first half of the year alone, demonstrating the continued strength of demand for its tools. Data from LSEG IBES also shows that analysts expect ASML’s net income to rise by 1.4% compared with the same period last year, reaching €2.11 billion.

ASML’s leaders were more cautious about the future earlier this year. The company stated that it was uncertain whether its revenue would grow in 2026 due to weaker spending from key customers such as Samsung and Intel. However, the situation took a sharp turn after the sudden boom in AI investments.

Morningstar analyst Javier Correonero said, “It’s clear that the sentiment has changed,” adding that ASML’s next earnings report will show how the company plans to handle this growing demand.

Investors now want to hear from management about how quickly ASML expects orders to grow, how it plans to expand its manufacturing capacity, and how it intends to meet customer needs over the next few years. Analysts say that the firm’s role will become even more central and valuable than before, as AI becomes an increasingly significant part of the global economy.

ASML works to speed up production and meet rising demand

Analysts and investors still want ASML to clearly explain how quickly it can increase production and deliver its machines. Building new chip factories is a slow process that takes many years, and producing the firm’s complex machines also requires a considerable amount of time.

Furthermore, each of the company’s extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines costs over $300 million and can take eight to twelve months to build and deliver. These circumstances force chipmakers to carefully consider when to place their orders, as they may spend a significant amount of money on machines they do not yet need if they do so too early. But if they order too late, they may not have enough machines when chip demand suddenly increases. Their timing needs to be perfect, so investors really want to know ASML’s ability to expand production.

Companies like Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung are already planning to build or upgrade their factories to produce more advanced memory chips for AI servers and data centers. Several Chinese companies are also trying to increase their output despite trade restrictions.

Analyst Michael Roeg at Degroof Petercam said that all major chipmakers are likely to order more machines from ASML in the next year as they expand their AI chip operations. The semiconductor firm may face a very high demand for its machines simultaneously from multiple customers, which could make its delivery schedules tighter and put pressure on its production system.

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