Bitcoin’s correlation with gold climbs toward all-time high

The Bitcoin–gold correlation has risen sharply. According to analysts, BTC is increasingly behaving like gold. Once seen as a speculative asset, it has now established itself as a safe haven and a store of value.

On-chain data shows that the BTC-gold correlation currently stands above 0.85, up from -0.8 in October 2021. This is close to the all-time high (ATH) correlation of around 0.9 in April last year.

According to Andrei Grachev, managing partner at DWF Labs, the correlation shows how institutional investors perceive Bitcoin. “It was once actively used as currency before becoming primarily a store of value. Bitcoin appears to be following a similar trajectory, which explains why its price movements increasingly echo gold’s dynamics,” he said.

Bitcoin’s scarcity surpasses that of gold

So far, 2025 has been a year of uncertainty. Investors remain anxious due to news of potential tariffs, geopolitical risk remains elevated, and the market swings with each new announcement. To that end, investors are seeking safe havens such as gold. 

Gold has had a phenomenal year, returning over 30% at the end of Q3. The last time gold saw gains of this magnitude was 15 years ago in 2010. Unlike 2010, however, investors are starting to see Bitcoin as another potential safe haven to weather turbulence.

Originally designed to function much like a currency, Bitcoin is now the most widely accepted crypto asset, accounting for more than 55% of the total crypto market cap. 

For both of them to be seen as store value, they must be scarce. Gold’s supply grows very slowly. A report from Goldman Sachs claims that new annual production adds just over 1% to the existing stock and is stable and price-inelastic. As a result, when demand grows, it is difficult to increase supply quickly. This constraint ultimately helps drive up the value of gold.

Bitcoin is similar. It has a fixed supply, with the final token projected to be mined by 2140. Bitcoin’s scarcity is now even greater than gold’s, as measured by its stock-to-flow ratio, which is the existing supply relative to annual production.

In April 2024, BTC surpassed gold as the asset with the highest stock-to-flow ratio among liquid and easily tradable assets.

When M2 money supply growth is taken into account, Bitcoin has regularly hit record highs, while gold is still below its peak from 1980.

Institutions give Bitcoin almost an equal chance as gold

A notable difference is reflected in the respective volatility of the two assets. Gold has a long-term volatility of approximately 15%. Bitcoin’s volatility, meanwhile, has decreased as it has gained greater legitimacy, but over the past five years, it has still averaged approximately 40%. That level of volatility is hardly consistent with what one would expect from an asset used as a safe haven.

The evolving narrative around Bitcoin’s role is further reinforced by BlackRock’s analysis, which positions the king coin as a unique diversifier uncorrelated to traditional assets. While gold initially outperformed Bitcoin in 2025, BlackRock’s data shows Bitcoin outpaced gold in five of six major geopolitical crises over 60-day periods, challenging its reputation as a volatile speculative asset.

Additionally, Tether has applied a dual strategy of investing in both Bitcoin and gold, highlighting the complementary roles of the two assets. CEO Paolo Ardoino emphasized that both serve as inflation hedges and long-term stores of value. Tether allocated 15% of its net profits to Bitcoin and backed its XAUt token with 7.66 tons of physical gold.

According to entrepreneur Anthony Pompliano, institutions now recognize that “no one is ever going to stop printing money,” driving demand for hard assets.

Meanwhile, gold prices surged to an all-time high of $4,179.48 per ounce. Spot gold rose 0.5% to $4,128.49, while US gold futures for December delivery climbed to $4,158. The metal has already gained 57% this year, driven by geopolitical risks.

On the other hand, BTC hit its all-time high of over $125k. The coin has, however, seen a decline of 2.37% in the last 24 hours and an 8% decline in the last week. It is now trading at $112,030.

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