Trump Suggests Cutting Cooking-Oil Trade as China Halts U.S. Soybeans, Market and Shipping Risks Emerge

• China stopped buying U.S. soybeans since May 2024, removing about 27 million metric tons (≈$12.8B) of demand.

• Markets reacted sharply to tariff threats and trade rhetoric, with the S&P 500 falling after the U.S. signaled further tariffs and bilateral sanctions.

• Shipping and port fees have become reciprocally punitive, risking nearly $3.2 billion in extra costs by 2026 for major operators.

U.S.-China trade tensions escalate as China halts soybean purchases; read analysis on market, shipping, and agriculture impacts—COINOTAG report, updated and authoritative.

What are the implications of U.S.-China trade tensions for markets and supply chains?

U.S.-China trade tensions are driving immediate market volatility and supply-chain shifts: Beijing’s halt on U.S. soybean purchases has reallocated demand to South America, tariff threats pushed equity indices lower, and reciprocal port fees introduce new costs and routing risks for global shipping.

How did soybean and cooking oil trade disputes escalate the standoff?

China had been the largest buyer of U.S. soybeans, importing roughly 27 million metric tons valued at about $12.8 billion in 2024. Since May 2024, Beijing declined to accept U.S. shipments and instead sourced supplies from Argentina and other South American producers. The deterioration followed renewed tariff rhetoric from Washington and a series of policy moves: the U.S. announced a $20 billion currency swap with Argentina the same day Argentina lifted export taxes, and diplomatic engagements heightened tensions. Concurrent data show China’s exports of used cooking oil hit record highs in 2024, with the U.S. accounting for 43% of that trade, amplifying U.S. concerns. These commercial shifts prompted public statements from the U.S. administration about potentially severing ties in the cooking oil trade and imposing additional tariffs.

Authoritative sources referenced for this report: U.S. Trade Representative (USTR), CCTV (China Central Television), COSCO, Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, CMA CGM, Athens-based Xclusiv Shipbrokers, Hanwha Ocean, Philly Shipyard, and Cryptopolitan (reporting).

Markets and maritime responses

Financial markets reacted quickly. The S&P 500 fell sharply after public warnings of higher tariffs and an announced additional 100% tariff slated for November 1, later softened by presidential commentary. Shipping operators face reciprocal port charges: Beijing introduced special port fees applied to U.S.-owned or -linked vessels, mirroring earlier U.S. measures aimed at bolstering domestic shipbuilding. Research from Xclusiv Shipbrokers described the situation as a “spiral of maritime taxation,” with analysts estimating roughly $3.2 billion in extra costs industry-wide by 2026—COSCO expected to shoulder almost half of that burden. Shipping analyst Ed Finley-Richardson said operators are rerouting vessels and, in some cases, attempting mid-voyage cargo sales to avoid Chinese ports. Major carriers reduced exposure by rerouting China-linked ships away from U.S. trade lanes.

Sanctions and corporate impact

Beijing announced sanctions against five U.S.-linked subsidiaries of South Korea’s Hanwha Ocean, accusing them of aiding a U.S. probe into China’s trade practices. Hanwha confirmed it was monitoring developments after its stock fell nearly 6%. These measures came amid parallel restrictions and investigatory findings that had earlier given U.S. authorities grounds to impose penalties targeting China’s practices in shipping and shipbuilding.

Frequently Asked Questions

How will China’s soybean purchase halt affect U.S. farmers in the near term?

The immediate effect is lost export demand and downward pressure on U.S. soybean prices, forcing farmers to seek alternative buyers or face inventory build-up. Shifts to South American suppliers may persist, reducing U.S. market share until diplomatic or policy adjustments restore trade flows.

Why did markets drop after Trump’s trade warning?

Markets fell because investors priced in the risk of sweeping tariffs, disrupted supply chains, and escalating retaliation, which could hit corporate earnings and raise costs for consumers and importers—an outcome that increases economic uncertainty and volatility.

Publication: COINOTAG, published 2025-10-15. Updated: 2025-10-15.

Key Takeaways

• Immediate demand shift: China’s suspension of U.S. soybean purchases redirected significant volumes to South America, impacting U.S. agricultural export revenues.
• Market volatility: Tariff threats and trade rhetoric spurred stock-market declines and heightened investor uncertainty.
• Shipping disruption risk: Reciprocal port fees and sanctions raise the cost and complexity of global freight, forcing route changes and increasing operational expenses.

Conclusion

This COINOTAG analysis shows U.S.-China trade tensions have moved beyond tariffs into agriculture, energy, and maritime policy, producing measurable market declines and supply-chain reconfiguration. Official data and expert commentary underscore the real economic costs: disrupted soybean exports, record used cooking oil trade flows, and billions in projected shipping costs. Policymakers and market participants should monitor diplomatic signals and industry adjustments closely to gauge whether these disruptions will normalize or persist—prepare for continued volatility and supply-chain contingency planning.