This Key Barrier Could Trigger Another Massive Bitcoin Rally

Bitcoin is trading just below a long-term resistance level that has marked key turning points in past market cycles. The asset stood at around $112,100 at press time, down slightly over the past 24 hours and down 8% over the past week.

Though short-term performance is weak, some technical and on-chain indicators are pointing to possible strength building in the background.

Log Curve and RSI Near Crucial Levels

Bitcoin’s price is approaching the top of its long-term logarithmic curve, a level that has acted as a ceiling in previous cycles. According to EtherNasyonaL, BTC “hasn’t even broken above the logarithmic curve resistance yet,” and the market tends to gain speed when this resistance is crossed.

Meanwhile, the monthly RSI is also near 72 but remains under its long-term trendline. Back in 2017, the RSI broke this same trendline shortly before the price moved sharply higher. The current setup shows the price and RSI are close to similar conditions again, though no breakout has been confirmed so far.

Additionally, on the 4-hour chart, Trader Tardigrade noted that Bitcoin is forming a double bottom pattern. The second low is higher than the first, which often signals that sellers are losing strength and buyers may be returning.

The resistance line, or neckline, of this pattern is around $116,000. A move above this level would confirm the setup. Until that happens, the pattern remains unconfirmed. This type of structure has previously led to upward moves, but only once the neckline is cleared with volume.

Pricing Bands Mark $119K as Key Level

The MVRV pricing model from Glassnode places the current Bitcoin price just below the +0.5 standard deviation band, which is at around $119,000. Analyst Ali Martinez said,

If not, a move down toward the model’s mean at $96,526 is possible.

These pricing bands are used to map past tops and bottoms. Bitcoin is now in the middle range, with no clear direction until it breaks above or falls below one of these thresholds.

On-Chain Data Shows Shift in Market Behavior

Data from XWIN Research Japan suggests Bitcoin is now in a later stage of the cycle. The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) sits at +0.52. In past years, this level marked a shift from growing optimism to more speculative behavior. Around 97% of the supply is now in profit.

Short-term holders now represent 44% of Bitcoin’s realized capitalization. This is the highest level recorded. It shows that many long-term holders are selling into strength while newer buyers step in. According to XWIN, “This time the structure appears different,” pointing to ETF inflows and broader liquidity as stabilizing forces.

As long as the price stays below resistance, the breakout is still unconfirmed. A move above $119,000, along with a break in RSI, could signal that the trend is continuing.

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