Gold prices continue to remain strong, up more than 50% since 2025
Year to date in 2025, international gold has extended its strong rally, climbing over 50% and setting multiple intraday and closing records. The move has been supported by mounting expectations of monetary easing by major central banks, rising global geopolitical uncertainty, and continued net gold purchases by emerging-market central banks, reinforcing gold’s roles in allocation and risk hedging.
On the flows side, major gold ETFs have returned to net inflows in recent weeks, speculative net-long positioning in futures has increased, and a wider spot-futures basis signals firm physical demand. Concurrent declines in real yields and the U.S. dollar index have provided valuation support. Gold-mining equities have amplified the upside, while silver has been buoyed by a falling gold-silver ratio.
Views are split among institutions. Bulls argue that with growth slowing and policy easing cycles overlapping, gold retains strategic allocation value. Cautious voices warn that sticky services inflation and a resilient labor market could slow the pace of rate cuts; combined with crowded longs and overbought technicals, near-term pullback risks are rising.
Key watchpoints include U.S. core inflation and employment data, guidance from major central banks, the pace of official-sector purchases, ETF holdings trends, and geopolitical developments. Analysts suggest focusing on position sizing and volatility control to avoid drawdowns associated with chasing strength in high-volatility conditions.
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