According to a poll by Reuters, 115 of 117 economists have predicted that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will reduce interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.75%-4.00% in the monetary policy announcement on October 29.
For the entire year, the United States (US) Fed will cut its Funds Rate twice more this year, say 83 of 117 economists, 32 say once.
The bigger risk to the Fed rate policy by the end of this cycle is that it would set rates too low, say 25 of 33 economists.
Market reaction
Despite intensified speculation among economists that the Fed will reduce interest rates in its two upcoming policy meetings, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, extends its two-day recovery move 0.35% higher to near 98.95.
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money.
When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions.
The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/fed-to-cut-federal-funds-rate-by-25-bps-to-375-400-range-on-october-29-reuters-202510211053
