Standard Chartered says $19B crash could push Bitcoin to $200K

TLDR

• Bitcoin fell to $104K after a $19B liquidation, its lowest in four months.
• Standard Chartered still forecasts Bitcoin to reach $200K by end of 2025.
• Bitcoin ETFs saw $477M net inflows after brief politically-driven outflows.
• Forecast depends on continued Fed rate cuts and strong ETF momentum.

A record $19 billion crypto market liquidation has triggered sharp volatility, but Standard Chartered says the sell-off may set the stage for a major Bitcoin rally. Despite Bitcoin dropping to a four-month low of $104,000, the bank’s digital assets research head, Geoff Kendrick, maintains a $200,000 price target by year-end, pointing to continued ETF inflows and supportive macroeconomic conditions.

Bitcoin Price Target Remains at $200K by Year-End

Standard Chartered’s Geoff Kendrick has reaffirmed his forecast that Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by the end of 2025. Speaking at the 2025 European Blockchain Convention in Barcelona, Kendrick said the $19 billion liquidation event could turn into a new buying phase for investors.

He noted that even in a more cautious scenario, Bitcoin’s price could still end the year “well north of $150,000,” depending on whether the Federal Reserve continues to lower interest rates. Kendrick added that his official base case remains $200,000, despite current market conditions and geopolitical concerns.

The liquidation, which occurred over the weekend of October 10, was the largest on record and drove Bitcoin to its lowest level since June. However, Kendrick said this dip might act as a trigger for long-term inflows, especially as macro conditions continue to support risk assets like Bitcoin.

Bitcoin ETFs See Strong Rebound After Brief Outflows

Kendrick said that flows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) remain the key driver for any recovery in price. According to data from Farside Investors, Bitcoin ETFs recorded $477 million in net inflows on Tuesday, following several days of politically driven outflows.

He explained that “there’s no reason for them to stop,” referring to the trend of rising ETF investments. Kendrick also linked the behavior of Bitcoin ETFs to recent moves in gold, which reached new all-time highs amid global uncertainty.

He believes the pattern seen in gold will continue to reflect in Bitcoin as both are seen as alternative stores of value. This could lead more institutional and retail investors to accumulate Bitcoin during market dips, further supporting the price in the coming months.

Market Still Reacting to Fed Policy and Political Uncertainty

The forecast from Standard Chartered depends heavily on the actions of the US Federal Reserve. Interest rate decisions remain a major influence on Bitcoin and other asset classes. Kendrick said that ongoing rate cuts would provide room for Bitcoin to grow, especially as inflation pressures ease and investor sentiment improves.

Political developments are also shaping market trends. Renewed trade tensions and comments from US President Donald Trump have added uncertainty. Despite this, Kendrick remains confident that the broader trend still favors higher Bitcoin prices.

The sell-off, according to him, could take a few more weeks to settle. But as stability returns, he expects inflows into digital assets to continue, supporting further upside.

Long-Term Outlook Extends to $500K by 2028

Kendrick also reaffirmed a previous long-term outlook shared in February. He said Bitcoin could reach $500,000 by 2028, assuming broader adoption and macroeconomic alignment during a potential second term for Trump.

This forecast depends on consistent institutional interest, continued ETF expansion, and a stable regulatory path. Although the market remains volatile, Kendrick believes that the foundation for long-term growth is in place.

Overall, despite the recent market shock, Standard Chartered maintains that the sell-off may offer long-term investors another window to enter the market. The bank’s current position is that the path to $200,000 remains possible by the end of 2025, provided ETF demand and macro conditions continue to align.

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