Ford (F) Stock: Why This Analyst Just Upgraded Shares Before Earnings

TLDR

• Ford Motor reports Q3 2025 earnings on October 23 after market close, with analysts expecting earnings of $0.35 per share on revenue of $47.05 billion
• The stock has climbed 15.6% year-to-date, fueled by strong hybrid vehicle sales and steady demand for pickups and SUVs
• Jefferies analyst upgraded Ford from Underperform to Hold with a $12 price target, citing potential gains from relaxed U.S. emissions rules
• Options traders anticipate a 6.11% stock price move in either direction following the earnings announcement
• Wall Street maintains a Hold consensus rating with an average price target of $11.40, implying 8.29% downside from current levels

Ford Motor is scheduled to release its third-quarter 2025 financial results on October 23 after the market closes. Wall Street analysts are projecting earnings per share of $0.35 on revenue of $47.05 billion.

The earnings forecast represents a 29% decrease compared to the same quarter last year. Revenue is expected to increase by 2% year-over-year.

Ford Motor Company, F

Ford has beaten earnings estimates in seven of the past nine quarters. The company posted revenue of $50.18 billion last quarter, exceeding analyst expectations by 7.8%.

The automaker’s stock has gained 15.6% since the beginning of 2025. Strong hybrid vehicle sales and consistent demand for pickups and SUVs have driven the gains.

Options traders are preparing for volatility. The expected earnings move calculated from at-the-money straddle options is 6.11% in either direction.

Ford has outperformed other industrials sector stocks heading into earnings. The stock is up 7.7% over the last month compared to the sector average of 1.8%.

Analyst Upgrade Points to Regulatory Benefits

Jefferies analyst Philippe Houchois upgraded Ford from Underperform to Hold ahead of the earnings report. He raised his price target to $12 from $9.

Houchois expects Ford to benefit from easier U.S. emissions regulations. The company could gain billions from the relaxed rules.

Ford is the most compliant U.S. automaker on emission standards. The company has avoided fines and frequently earns regulatory credits.

Pickups and SUVs account for 43% of Ford’s U.S. sales. These vehicles generate most of the company’s profit.

Electric Vehicle Strategy Shift

Ford is expected to outline changes to its electric vehicle strategy in the fourth quarter. The company is shifting more EV production to Europe where costs are lower.

This geographic shift should reduce losses from the EV business. Ford is also cutting spending on a new vehicle platform scheduled for 2027.

The company may not provide 2026 guidance until next year. Management is expected to detail plans for an improved vehicle mix during the Q4 update.

With relaxed emission limits on higher-emission models like the Raptor and ST-Line, Ford could offset tariff costs. The regulatory changes could boost earnings next year.

Wall Street maintains a Hold consensus rating on Ford stock. Two analysts rate it a Buy, nine rate it a Hold, and two rate it a Sell based on recommendations from the past three months.

The average analyst price target stands at $11.40 per share. This implies 8.29% downside risk from the current trading price of $12.56.

Some of Ford’s peers have already reported Q3 results. General Motors posted flat year-over-year revenue but beat analyst estimates by 7.9%.

Ford has missed Wall Street’s revenue estimates only once over the last two years. The company has exceeded top-line expectations by an average of 4.1%.

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