Quantum computing increasingly challenging for crypto

The so-called “quantum computing” is continuing to make significant strides forward. 

In particular, yesterday a news article was released that makes it clear what progress is being made in this direction, so much so that it further increases the alarmism within the crypto sector. 

It should be noted, however, that such alarmism is still largely unjustified today, even though the continuous and significant advancements in quantum computing make it slightly more concerning. 

The Google News: Quantum Computing is About to Enter the Real World

Yesterday on the official Google blog, a post was published discussing Quantum Echoes.

Quantum Echoes is a Google algorithm that, according to them, represents a significant step forward towards practical applications for quantum computing. This joins Willow, Google’s quantum chip launched at the end of 2024, thus showcasing the first-ever algorithm capable of achieving a verifiable quantum advantage on hardware.

The post reveals that, for the first time in history, a quantum computer can now successfully execute a verifiable algorithm on hardware, even surpassing the fastest classical supercomputers. It can, for example, calculate the structure of a molecule, paving the way for real-world applications. 

Quantum Echoes, or Google’s OTOC (Out-of-Order Time Correlator) algorithm, can be useful for learning the structure of systems in nature, from molecules to magnets to black holes, and operates 13,000 times faster on Willow compared to the best classical algorithm on one of the fastest supercomputers in the world.

This is the first time in history that a quantum computer has successfully executed a verifiable algorithm that surpasses the capabilities of supercomputers. 

In particular, with a proof-of-principle experiment in collaboration with the University of California, Berkeley, they executed the Quantum Echoes algorithm on the Willow chip to study two molecules, one with 15 atoms and the other with 28 atoms. The results obtained matched those of traditional NMR, but also revealed information usually not available with NMR (nuclear magnetic resonance). 

The post concludes with these words: 

Google’s Experiments

As can be seen from this statement, these are still just experiments. 

In other words, quantum computing is still far from being a technology that can be used daily by anyone. In fact, it is not even usable daily by large companies yet, because even Google’s use of it is still limited to experiments. 

However, it took less than twelve months to move from the Willow quantum chip to the Quantum Echoes algorithm, so it may not be many more years before such technology can actually be brought to market. 

Note that Google claims that Quantum Echoes, along with Willow, is 13,000 times faster than the fastest supercomputers in the world.

This is a potentially explosive innovation, probably on par with artificial intelligence, if not perhaps even more. Indeed, combined with AI, it becomes astonishing and epoch-making. 

The Risks

Regarding the crypto system, this technology involves risks. 

In fact, cryptocurrencies are based on cryptographic algorithms that are secure because, at present, they would require unheard-of and non-existent computing power to be cracked. 

It should be highlighted not only how different cryptographic algorithms have different resistances to so-called “brute force” attacks like those that could be conducted with quantum computing, but also that there are already “quantum resistant” algorithms, called PQC (Post-quantum cryptography). 

At present, the cryptographic algorithms of cryptocurrencies are still largely secure, but the question is not if they will eventually be cracked, but when. 

With computing powers like those of Quantum Echoes + Willow, many could end up being cracked, especially the older ones. 

Bitcoin is the first cryptocurrency ever created, and it is based on cryptographic algorithms that were available 16 years ago. At that time, PQC did not yet exist.

The Solution

The only way to prevent quantum computing from eventually cracking the old cryptographic algorithms still used by many cryptocurrencies is to update the crypto protocols by switching to PQC.

For some cryptocurrencies it is easier, so much so that some are actually already based on PQC, but for Bitcoin and similar ones it is more difficult. 

In particular, it is especially difficult for Bitcoin, because getting the community to accept a protocol change is decidedly challenging. 

However, it will be absolutely necessary to do it, sooner or later, and the most critical aspect seems to be the timing. 

How long will it take before quantum computers crack one of Bitcoin’s cryptographic algorithms? 

Nobody knows for sure, but it will certainly take at least a few years, if not decades. 

But how long will it take before the bitcoin community can be compelled to adopt a new modified quantum resistant protocol? 

In theory, it might take much less time, but in practice, such timelines are still extended.