Bank of Canada cuts key interest rate to 2.25%, lowest since 2022

The Bank of Canada on Wednesday cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point for the second consecutive meeting. The bank’s rate was lowered to 2.25%, the lowest level since July 2022.

The central bank signaled that the rate cut could mark an end to its cutting cycle unless the inflation outlook changed. According to the central bank’s Monetary Policy Report, it lowered its GDP forecast, noting a slowdown in the economy as it keeps inflation close to its 2% target.

Macklem says U.S.-Canada trade war adds costs for businesses

According to Governor Tiff Macklem, the 25-basis-point cut comes as the bank assesses the damage caused by the heightened U.S. tariffs. The Bank of Canada also stated the policy rate is at the right place as long as the economy grows in line with its 2% inflation target. 

The BoC confirmed that trade policies limit the role that monetary policy can play in boosting demand while maintaining low inflation. The bank also expects inflation to average 2% over the year, while consumer prices are projected to average around 2.1% in 2026.

The bank predicted in January that Canada’s GDP would grow by 1.8% in both 2025 and 2026. It now forecasts this year’s growth to around 1.2% and a drop to 1.1% in 2026, before recovering to 1.6% in 2027.

The BoC also resumed its report of detailed quarterly economic forecasts on Wednesday, after suspending it in March amid economic uncertainty. The financial institution projects an annual growth of 0.5% in Q3 and 1% in the fourth quarter.

Macklem noted that the trade conflict with the U.S. has lowered Canada’s economic prospects and has added costs for many businesses. Royce Mendes, managing director and head of macro strategy at Desjardins, acknowledged that the bank’s growth projections are modest and that it would take a prolonged period of weakness for central bankers to intervene.

Robert Kavcic, a senior economist at BMO, argued that monetary policy is limited in the current economic environment because inflation is pushing back to 2%. He also believes that ongoing softness in the job market offers an opportunity for another 25-basis-point rate cut for early 2026.

Change in economic outlook signals continued monetary policy 

Macklem also mentioned that the bank is prepared to respond if the outlook changes. He argued that policymakers will need to see an accumulation of evidence beyond a monthly data point, relative to the bank’s new forecasts. BoC’s rate cut comes in the wake of Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government plan to reveal its first budget, which is expected to focus more on infrastructure and other major projects to boost growth.

The BoC expects the decline in exports to the U.S. to continue as the U.S. has maintained the tariffs on Canadian steel, aluminum, softwood lumber, and autos. The bank also estimates that U.S. levies on Canadian goods are averaging 5.9%. 

According to the bank, Canadian exports to the European Union, China, and other regions of the world have increased significantly compared to last year. The BoC argued that the diversification in its exports only partially offsets the weakness in trade with the U.S. Macklem noted that the impact of Canada has become clearer as U.S. protectionism is entrenched, and even as the level and scope of future tariffs remain uncertain.

Managing Director at National Bank Financial, Warren Lovely, acknowledged that the BoC is lowering interest rates because the economy is under immense strain, driven by the continued swirl of geopolitical tensions. He believes the economy needs support, arguing that the Bank of Canada might not be done with cutting rates.

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