A Coiling Spring: 3 Metrics That Show Bitcoin Positioned to Catch Stock Market Rally Soon

Key Insights:

• Bitcoin underperformed the S&P 500 in October 2025, mirroring the pattern seen in 2024, before BTC rallied 70% in two months.
• Accumulation addresses surged past 760,000 following the Oct. 10 market crash, indicating smart money bought the dip.
• US spot Bitcoin ETF inflows turned positive but remained below 1,000 BTC per day, significantly lower than the 2,500 BTC daily rate seen during major rallies.

The S&P 500 registered sequential all-time highs this month while Bitcoin (BTC) consolidates in a range between $107,000 and $117,000.

Analyst Ash Crypto noted on Oct. 29 that BTC underperformed the stock market but said the same pattern preceded a 70% Bitcoin rally in just two months during 2024.

Ash Crypto’s analysis showed two distinct phases in Bitcoin’s price relationship with the S&P 500.

During the range phase, Bitcoin moved sideways while the stock index climbed steadily. This consolidation period preceded an expansion phase in which Bitcoin’s price surged sharply, breaking its correlation with traditional markets.

The analyst stated Bitcoin would catch up with the stock market soon.

Accumulation Addresses Hit Post-Crash Record

Coin Bureau reported on Oct. 29 that Bitcoin accumulation addresses surged past 760,000 following the Oct. 10 market crash.

The metric tracked wallets that consistently bought and held BTC without selling. The data showed smart money was purchased during periods of fear and declining prices.

Glassnode’s chart used in the post displayed the number of accumulation addresses rising from approximately 754,000 in late July to 762,000 by late October. The orange line tracked accumulation addresses while the black line showed Bitcoin’s price.

The sharp increase in accumulation occurred as Bitcoin’s price dropped from around $120,000 to $107,000 during the October correction.

The accumulation metric demonstrated continued confidence from long-term holders despite short-term price weakness.

The 2% increase in accumulation addresses from pre-crash levels to post-crash highs indicated buying pressure built at lower price points.

Bitcoin Cost Basis Set Support and Resistance Zones

Glassnode stated on Oct. 27 that Bitcoin stabilized as sell pressure eased and profitability improved.

Muted activity and selective participation suggested a cautious, rangebound market until major demand stepped in.

The analytics firm added on Oct. 28 that Bitcoin’s cost basis distribution showed support near $111,000 and heavy supply around $117,000. This range defined the battleground between recent buyers and profit-takers.

A break in either direction could set the tone for the next major move.

On Oct. 29, Glassnode noted that the bounce from $107,000 coincided with US spot ETF netflows turning positive.

However, inflows remained below 1,000 BTC per day, significantly lower than the 2,500 BTC daily rate seen at the start of major rallies this cycle. Demand recovered, but not at the intensity of recent rallies.

FOMC Meeting Set Stage for Volatility

The Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting on Oct. 29 delivered an expected, already priced 25-basis-point rate cut.

The cut would brings the federal funds rate target range to 3.75% to 4%, building on the initial reduction implemented in September 2025.

Crypto analyst Michael van de Poppe described Bitcoin’s recent breakout above $112,000 as confirmation that the bull market remained intact.

He expected a brief pullback before the FOMC meeting, followed by strong upward continuation if the rate cut materialized. As of press time, the pullback materialized, but the price action shows no signs of strong upward continuation.

Analysts outlined two scenarios for Bitcoin ahead of the Fed decision.

The first scenario involved Bitcoin trading higher into the decision, leaving a CME Futures gap unfilled, followed by a sharp reversal to test the midrange near $109,000 to $110,000.

The second scenario saw Bitcoin filling the CME Futures gap before the FOMC meeting, setting up a reversal higher after the announcement and opening the door for a potential new all-time high in November.

Putting them together, these three factors suggest that Bitcoin has the strength to catch up to the stock market. However, in finance, potential does not always translate into concrete action.