Experts have predicted that a decline in the price of gold can trigger a major Bitcoin (BTC) rally if capital rotates into digital gold. For Bitwise analysts, a 5% capital rotation from the premier precious metal is all that is required to trigger a doubling of Bitcoin prices, but a timeline remains unclear for bulls.
Capital Rotation From Gold To Fuel Bitcoin Rally
Crypto-asset manager Bitwise has forecasted that Bitcoin’s next rally is underpinned by gold’s performance in the coming months. According to analysts, the trigger for Bitcoin will be capital rotation from gold, with the report predicting that BTC prices will double with only a 5% inflow from the precious metal.
Under the hypothesis, a 1% capital rotation will send BTC price to a new all-time high of $134,270, while a 2% inflow will see prices reach $161,300. At 3%, Bitwise analysts predict a price point of $188,330, and at 4%, BTC is expected to trade at $215,360.
Furthermore, a 5% capital rotation from gold will send the BTC price doubling from its present levels to settle at $242,391. The estimates follow gold’s meteoric 60% rally since the start of the year, as the metal trades at $4,350 per ounce, while the Bitcoin price has fallen by over 10% from its all-time high.
“Only a small percentage of capital rotation from gold is needed for BTC to double from here,” read Bitwise’s report.
Several factors are fueling enthusiasm for a capital rotation from gold to Bitcoin. For starters, investors have their eyes peeled for the charts to show gold topping out or a large drawdown. In the event of either of these scenarios, Bitwise suggests that investors will seek the next store of value.
Furthermore, recent institutional adoption and regulatory clarity are enhancing Bitcoin’s appeal to investors amid macroeconomic shifts that point to an imminent capital rotation from gold.
Just A Matter Of Time For Bitcoin
Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, disclosed in a note that gold’s price performance is a precursor for a Bitcoin rally. He noted that while gold has enjoyed glowing prices in 2025, aggressive state-backed and institutional purchases began back in 2022.
“Don’t look at gold’s meteoric rise with envy. Look at it with anticipation,” wrote Hougan. “It could end up showing us where bitcoin is headed.”
Hougan pointed out that ETFs and institutional Bitcoin adoption surged in 2024, suggesting a similar three-year incubation period to that experienced by gold investors. The Bitwise executive disclosed that price-sensitive investors taking early profits may be the reason for Bitcoin’s lackluster price performance in recent months.
Source: https://zycrypto.com/bitwise-says-5-capital-rotation-from-gold-can-send-bitcoin-close-to-250000/
