Sui price analysis: Market braces for volatility ahead of $102M SUI token unlock

Sui price outlook weakens as traders turn cautious before a $103 million token unlock that could test the market’s short-term resilience.

Sui price fell 5.7% in the past 24 hours to trade at $2.35, extending a week-long decline of 5.5%. Over the past month, the token has dropped 27%, and it now sits 56% below its all-time high of $5.35 set in January.

Trading activity has remained steady despite the price slide. The 24-hour volume for Sui (SUI) rose 12% to $1.33 billion, suggesting renewed participation among short-term traders. Data from CoinGlass shows a small decrease in derivatives volume to $2.8 billion, while open interest rose slightly to $818.7 million. 

This pattern often shows up when traders are holding onto their current positions rather than opening new ones, which is a warning sign as volatility increases before the unlock.

Token unlock weighs down on Sui price sentiment

According to Tokenomist data, about 43.96 million SUI tokens, worth $103.3 million will be unlocked on Nov. 1. This unlock represents 1.21% of the circulating supply. Since only 36% of the entire SUI has been unlocked thus far, the release will significantly increase market liquidity.

Such unlocks have historically increased short-term selling pressure, especially when price momentum is already weak.

Adding to the unlock pressure, DeFiLlama’s on-chain data shows that network activity is slowing down. In the last day, total value locked has decreased 4.2% to $1.74 billion, the lowest level since July. Sui’s stablecoin market capitalization dropped 19% in the past week to $932 million, indicating decreasing liquidity for lending and trading.

However, decentralized exchange activity remains one of the few positive signs. Despite poorer price performance, monthly DEX volume rose from $13.6 billion in September to $23 billion in October.

Longer-term support might be offered by the impending stablecoin integrations for Sui. It is projected that suiUSDe and USDi will launch in Q4 2025 through partnerships with Ethena Labs and BlackRock’s BUIDL fund. This could open up new liquidity and attract new inflows.

On the regulatory side, interest from Grayscale’s SUI Trust, Franklin Templeton’s spot SUI ETF filing, and a16z’s fund expansion point to growing institutional interestt. These developments could help support short-term price.

Sui price technical analysis

SUI is still below every significant moving average. The 10-day EMA at $2.48 serves as immediate resistance, and the next significant support is at $2.23. At 36.9, the relative strength index is neutral and near oversold, suggesting limited downside room in the near term.

Momentum, MACD, and commodity channel index indicators show early buy readings, indicating potential short-term stabilization. Unless the price closes above $2.56, the general trend remains weak.

SUI might move towards $2.00 if sellers maintain control. If unlock-related pressure subsides and trading volumes remain stable, a brief recovery towards $2.70 is possible.