Bills Stop KC; Lions, Pats Value Plays At Home

The NFL cannot get enough of Kansas City and Buffalo, and as we have discussed, it is the byproduct of the weighted schedule designed to promote parity, engage fans and draw ratings.

Good play good and less good plays less good every season, based on the previous year’s finish. When good proves it every year, good plays good again.

Buffalo and Kansas City will meet Sunday for the 10th time since 2020, a series that can be neatly — and excruciatingly, for those in northern New York — separated into two buckets.

The Bills have won the last four regular-season games and are 4-1 in the last five. The Chiefs have avenged each of those losses with a victory in the playoffs, two in the AFC championship game.

So it was again last season. The Bills beat the Chiefs 30-21 in Week 11, handing the Chiefs their first loss in a game that catapulted quarterback Josh Allen to his first MVP award.

Allen did not have the best numbers a year ago — the Ravens’ Lamar Jackson had a better case statistically — but his 26-yard touchdown run on fourth-and-two with two minutes remaining clinched the victory and provided the necessary momentum.

That was the league’s most-watched regular-season game (excluding holidays) since 2007, drawing 31.2 million viewers, according to CBS.

Not as much drama exists this time, inasmuch as neither team leads its division. Denver is threatening to end Chiefs’ nine-year run atop the AFC West, and New England poised to stop the Bills’ five-year run in the AFC East.

Yet as always, it is the game of the week.

Minnesota and Detroit renew their NFC North rivalry in the first of their home-and-home set at Ford Field this season, and Dallas and Arizona meet on Monday night in Big D.

Kansas City Chiefs (5-3) at Buffalo Bills (6-2)

Sunday, CBS, 4:25 pm ET

The Bills have played only one team with a winning record, and that was a 23-20 nom loss to the Patriots, a game decided on a field goal in the final 15 seconds. Buffalo had more yardage but three turnovers hurt.

Kelly threw two interceptions in a 24-14 loss at Atlanta the following week, but after a bye week they recovered with a 40-9 win over Carolina. James Cook, finally turned loose this season, had 216 yards against the Panthers and leads the league with 107.6 yards rushing per game. He had 85 yards on 13 carries in a 32-29 loss to the Chiefs in the AFC title game last year.

Patrick Mahomes is a leading candidate for his third NFL MVP award this season. He leads the league with 17 touchdown passes and with 280 rushing yards is on pace to shatter his season high of 389 rushing yards set in 2023.

The Bills have covered the last four regular-season meetings, none with a spread larger than a field goal.

The spread: Chiefs -1 1/2

The money line: Chiefs -134, Bills +114

The total: 52 1/2

The play: Bills

Minnesota Vikings (3-4) at Detroit Lions (5-2)

Sunday, FOX, 1 pm ET

Detroit has found a way around Minnesota’s defense. The Lions have won the last five games and six of the last eight in the twice-yearly series, and they have covered all eight. They have won the last three at Ford Field by double-digits.

Quarterback Jared Goff has completed 74.9 percent of his passes with three interceptions, and his efficiency coupled with the Lions strong running game offers plenty of challenges for new Vikings’ defensive coordinator Brian Flores.

Minnesota quarterback J.J. McCarthy is expected to start after missing five games with a high ankle sprain suffered against Atlanta in Week 2, but he faces a healthier Lions’ defense led by edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson.

Hutchinson, who signed a four-year, $180 million contract extension Wednesday, has six sacks, four forced fumbles and a fumble recovery this season.

The spread: Lions -8 1/2

The money line: Lions -480, Vikings +370

The total: 48 1/2

The play: Lions

Atlanta Falcons (3-4) at New England Patriots (6-2)

Sunday, 1 pm ET, CBS

Coach Mike Vrabel is building a new version of the Bill Belichick machine that Vrabel played for in the Patriots’ glory days, with second-year quarterback Drake Maye the principal.

Maye leads the league in competition percentage and is second in the league in passer rating. He holds the ball, which leads to sacks (28, second most in the league) but also mitigates against forced throws (3 picks). Maye also can escape the picket, as his 250 yards rushing shows.

Quarterback Michael Penix and top received Drake London are expected to return, fortifying an Atlanta group that beat Buffalo when Josh Allen threw two interceptions. Maye, called a “younger Josh Allen by Falcons’ defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich. is more risk averse.

The Patriots are 6-2 against the spread and remain undervalued. Atlanta is 6-14 against the number in their last 20 as an underdog.

The spread: Patriots -5 1/2

The money line: Patriots -230, Falcons +190

The total: 44 1/2

The play: Patriots

Last week: 1-2

Season: 12-14

^{Odds from FanDuel}