At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $102,572, suggesting a 3.04% decline in the last 24 hours. The decline extends weekly losses to 8% and monthly losses to 17%, marking a significant retreat from the cryptocurrency’s recent all-time highs.
BTC Price, Source: CoinMarketCap
The pullback follows a sustained sell-off by long-term holders who have liquidated over 400,000 BTC worth approximately $42.3 billion in the past month. Market analysts view this distribution phase as a critical test of Bitcoin’s ability to maintain support above six figures.
Long-Term Holders Distribute $42 Billion Worth of Bitcoin
Long-term holders, defined as entities that have held coins for at least six months without selling, began offloading their positions after Bitcoin reached new all-time highs above $126,000 in early October. CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn identified a net decrease of 405,000 BTC on a rolling 30-day basis.
Source: CryptoQuant
This represents nearly 2% of Bitcoin’s total supply entering the market. Crypto market commentator TFTC noted that despite this substantial distribution, Bitcoin remains above the psychologically significant $100,000 level. TFTC founder Marty Bent emphasized the market’s resilience, stating that absorbing this sell pressure without a 30%-50% decline signals underlying strength.
Short-term holders also contributed to the selling pressure. These investors, often characterized as “weak hands,” have sent over 26,800 BTC, valued at roughly $3 billion, to exchanges at a loss over the past three days. This behavior reflects a typical pattern in which short-term holders panic during price dips and incur losses. Data suggests these holders face growing unrealized losses and may continue selling if prices decline further.
BTC: Short Term Holder Capitulation, Source: X
Technical Indicators Point to Further Downside Risk
Bitcoin’s weekly chart reveals a falling wedge pattern after the price lost support at $114,550. The cryptocurrency now tests the 50-week simple moving average at $103,300, a critical support level that bulls are defending.
Additional support zones include the $100,000 psychological threshold and the 100-week simple moving average at $82,000. A weekly close below these levels could trigger further declines toward the wedge target of $72,000, representing a 30% drop from current prices.
BTC/USD weekly price chart. Source: Tradingview
The relative strength index shows a concerning bearish divergence. Between mid-July and early October, Bitcoin’s price formed higher lows, while the weekly RSI declined from 70 to 45, resulting in lower lows. This divergence typically signals weakness in an uptrend as buyer exhaustion sets in and profit-taking accelerates.
Source: https://coinpaper.com/12106/bitcoin-sell-off-nobody-is-talking-about-why-42-billion-just-left-the-market
