Woo said that as long as Strategy’s stock stays above $183.19 by 2027—which is roughly equivalent to Bitcoin trading around $91,500—the firm can cover its debt without liquidation. Other analysts also said that it would take an unusually severe bear market to trigger a sell-off. Despite Strategy’s strong Bitcoin position, both its stock and Bitcoin prices have dipped recently.
Analysts Doubt Strategy Will Sell Bitcoin
Bitcoin analyst Willy Woo believes that Michael Saylor’s company, Strategy (MSTR), is unlikely to face a forced Bitcoin liquidation even if the market enters another major downturn. In a post that was shared on X, Woo dismissed speculation that Strategy might have to sell part of its Bitcoin holdings to service its debt, saying, “MSTR liquidation in the next bear market? I doubt it.”
Strategy’s debt is primarily made up of convertible senior notes, which the company can choose to settle with cash, common stock, or a mix of both when they mature. One of the key dates for repayment comes on Sept. 15, 2027, when approximately $1.01 billion in debt will be due.
Woo explained that to avoid selling any Bitcoin to cover that amount, Strategy’s stock price must stay above $183.19 by that time, a level that aligns with Bitcoin trading around $91,500—assuming a multiple net-asset-value ratio of 1.
Other analysts seem to share Woo’s confidence. Bitcoin commentator The Bitcoin Therapist argued that Bitcoin will have to perform exceptionally poorly for Strategy to be forced into liquidation, and explained that it would take “one hell of a sustained bear market” to trigger such a scenario. Currently, Strategy holds around 641,205 Bitcoin, which is valued at roughly $64 billion according to Saylor Tracker data.
Despite this strong position, the company’s stock has not been immune to the recent market weakness. Shares of Strategy closed Tuesday at $246.99, which was a seven-month low after dropping nearly 7% in a single day. Bitcoin itself is also under pressure, and slid to around $101,377 after losing nearly 10% over the past week.
BTC’s price action over the past week (Source: CoinMarketCap)
While Woo does not foresee major risks in the near term, he did warn that a “partial liquidation” could occur if Bitcoin fails to appreciate much during the expected 2028 bull market. Still, with long-term forecasts from people like ARK Invest’s Cathie Wood and Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong predicting Bitcoin could reach $1 million by 2030, the outlook for Strategy is still heavily tilted toward optimism rather than concern.
Source: https://coinpaper.com/12111/strategy-unlikely-to-liquidate-bitcoin-in-market-downturn
