In brief
- Two crypto influencers made a bet on Bitcoin’s next move: pump to $120,000 or dip to $100,000.
- Both put up $100,000 each, which was held in escrow by Myriad, with a prediction market running alongside it.
- Over the market’s 23-day lifespan, the odds of victory flipped nine times, with Keyboard Monkey ultimately taking the victory.
A bearish crypto influencer known as Keyboard Monkey won a $200,000 bet by predicting Bitcoin’s recent crash, following a 17% monthly collapse that saw it dip below $100,000 for the first time in six months.
Keyboard Monkey’s victory came thanks to a bet with fellow influencer Mando that Bitcoin would drop to $100,000 before it could hit $120,000. Myriad—a prediction market developed by Decrypt‘s parent company, Dastan—worked as a middleman for this deal, holding the wagered $200,000 in escrow and tracking user sentiment on its prediction market platform. (Disclaimer: Mando is an investor in Dastan.)
But it wasn’t smooth sailing for the influencer to claim his victory. Just over a week before, Bitcoin surged to $115,513, and Keyboard Monkey’s odds of victory sat at a mere 27%, according to Myriad. That was just one of nine times the odds flipped over the market’s 23-day lifespan.
How we got here
It all started following the record-breaking $19 billion liquidation cascade on October 10, which came after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened China with huge tariffs. Bitcoin dropped 8% from $121,000 to $111,000 over 24 hours, according to CoinGecko.
“[I’m] extremely confident in sub-$100,000 BTC,” KeyboardMonkey posted on X. “I think $120,000 before $100,000. Let’s get a prediction market going on this thing,” Mando responded. “Sure, easy win,” Keyboard Monkey quipped.
Both influencers put up $100,000, which was held in escrow by Myriad, with the winner taking all.
How it played out
Upon the market opening, Keyboard Monkey’s odds of victory stooped to a low of 24% alongside Bitcoin’s partial rebound to $115,000. The odds flipped as Bitcoin tumbled to $105,000 over the next four days, causing the influencer’s odds to spike to 68.7%.
Keyboard Monkey’s chances collapsed once again as Bitcoin recovered to $108,000. The odds flipped four more times over the coming days as Bitcoin’s notorious volatility was on full display—with the influencers’ money hanging in the balance.
However, by October 27, it appeared the contest was soon to be over, with there being a 73% chance that Mando would claim the victory. Bitcoin had recovered to $115,000 as trade war tensions between the U.S. and China eased, and predictors believed there were clear skies ahead.
Yet this was just the local top. Bitcoin plunged 13% over the coming week as multiple $1 billion liquidation days battered the market, prompting BTC to stoop below $100,000 for the first time in six months. The market was over.
“The good guys won,” Keyboard Monkey wrote X, as he claimed the $200,000 total bounty.
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Source: https://decrypt.co/347580/how-crypto-influencer-won-200k-bet-predicting-bitcoin-crash
