Cubs And Shota Imanaga Decline Options, Team Makes A Qualifying Offer

Who doesn’t love a creative contract? A player values himself at a certain level, the team feels otherwise. The team wants cost certainty and downside protection; the player wants long-term security. The team tries not to be held hostage by demands down the road; but the player desires flexibility if he outperforms his projections. So, smart people sit in a room and hash out a deal that attempts to check every box. It so rarely happens that we need to acknowledge it when it does. As I have previously written, the Seattle Mariners’ contract with Julio Rodríguez is the gold standard in this regard. But so too was the deal that super-agent Scott Boras hashed out with the Philadelphia Philles for Jake Arrieta in 2016.

But a deal that was overlooked at the time, but that has come into focus this week, was the one that the Chicago Cubs signed with pitcher Shota Imanaga before the 2024 season. On its face, the contract was four years, $53 million. Simple enough. Just to make it slightly more complicated, there was a $1 million signing bonus, a $9 million salary for 2024, $13 million salary for 2025, and $15 million for each of 2026 and 2027.

After this season, the Cubs had the right to exercise an option for 2028 (yes, three years into the future). To do so, it would become a three-year, $57 million extension (2026 and 2027 go from $15 million to $20 million, and 2028 would be $17 million). Had Imanaga performed as the Cubs had hoped, $19 million per season for a middle-of-the-rotation starter would be a good value.

But wait, there is more. The deal had incentives built in, and because Imanaga finished fifth in Cy Young voting in 2024, all future salaries went up by $250,000. As such, this became a potential $57.75 million extension.

If the Cubs elected not to exercise their three-year option, the pitcher could remain in Chicago by exercising his own option for 2026 at $15 million (actually $15.25 million because of the Cy Young kicker).

If Imanaga exercised that option to stay with the club for 2026, then the Cubs would then have yet another option at the end of the season: two years, $42 million ($24 million in 2027 and $18 million in 2028). If the team decided to cut bait after 2026, the pitcher could still remain with the club by exercising an option for 2027 at $15 million. Got it?

Well, Shota Imanaga had a pretty mediocre season on the North Side. He went 9-8 with a 3.73 ERA and a 4.86 FIP. His 103 ERA+ was just about average. In a year when the wind blew in for three-quarters of the Cubs home games, he gave up 17 dingers at Wrigley Field. His 31 home runs were fourth worst in MLB (among 873 eligible pitchers). The team lost such faith in him that they elected to go with a bullpen game in the must-win Game 5 of the National League Division Series against the Brewers rather than throw the fully-rested lefty. The Cubs lost 3-1.

So, the die had been cast; and this week Chicago elected not to exercise their three-year option on the Japanese pitcher. Imanaga, in turn, elected not to exercise his one-year, $15 million option, making him a free agent…almost. The Cubs still had the ability to make a “Qualifying Offer” to the pitcher, which (a) if he accepted, would pay him $22.025 million for 2026 or (b) if he declined, would entitle the team to draft pick compensation if/when he signs with another team.

Immediately prior to the 4pm deadline earlier today, the Cubs did, in fact, extend a Qualifying Offer to the left-hander. Imanaga now has until Tuesday, November 18^th to either accept the QO and be paid more than $22 million next season to pitch for Chicago or reject the offer and finally become an unrestricted free agent. Of course, between now and two Tuesdays from now, the player and the team could negotiate something else entirely. With a deal like this, anything is possible!