Bitcoin has fallen below critical technical thresholds, prompting warnings from major analytics firms about an extended period of decline. At the time of writing, the cryptocurrency is trading at $102,298, indicating a 0.35% increase over the past 24 hours. Weekly losses have reached nearly 7%, while monthly declines exceed 16%.
Source: CoinMarketCap
CryptoQuant identified an extremely bearish phase for the digital asset. On-chain data reveals troubling signals as BTC hovers around the $102,000 mark.
Critical Support Level Broken
The 365-day moving average has been breached. Bitcoin fell below the $102,000 threshold that previously marked the bottom of the bull cycle. This technical and psychological support level held significance for market participants.
Source: CryptoQuant
CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index reached zero for the first time in over three years. The last occurrence preceded the previous bear market. Traders’ on-chain realized price bands suggest potential movement toward $72,000 if recovery fails above $100,000.
The Metcalfe network valuation model indicates $91,000 as the next level of structural support. Failure to reclaim the 365-day moving average could trigger broader corrections. The analytics firm notes similarities to 2021, when breaking below this metric initiated a prolonged drawdown.
Market fundamentals have weakened over recent weeks. Increased outflows, reduced network activity, and flattening valuation metrics paint a concerning picture. Bitcoin touched $98,000 on November 4, marking the local bottom and the first drop below $100,000 since July.
Bloomberg’s Mike McGlone projects a possible 50% decline if current trends continue. He suggests the cryptocurrency could revert to its 48-month moving average near $56,000. McGlone describes this pattern as normal behaviour following extended rallies similar to 2025.
Mixed Signals from Market Indicators
XWIN Research Japan highlighted declining Market Value to Realized Value ratios. The MVRV has fallen to historical lows, ranging from 1.8 to 2.0. These levels typically coincide with mid-term market bottoms or early recovery phases.
Bitcoin: MVRV Ratio, Source: CryptoQuant
Glassnode’s analysis offers a more measured perspective. The firm’s report titled “Defending $100K” suggests the current situation represents a normal correction within the ongoing cycle. Data shows 71% of market supply remains profitable. Unrealized losses account for just 3.1% of market capitalization.
Market analysts remain divided on the trajectory of Bitcoin. As we previously covered, Cathie Wood of ARK Invest reduced her long-term price projection by $300,000. She cited concerns about stablecoins eroding Bitcoin’s store-of-value role in emerging markets.
Source: https://coinpaper.com/12193/bitcoin-just-broke-critical-support-analysts-predict-50-crash
