- Benjamin Cowen expects Bitcoin to reach a cycle peak in the fourth quarter of 2025.
- The analyst warns of a potential market correction in 2026, consistent with past midterm-year declines.
- Altcoins such as Ethereum and Solana could rally briefly before broader weakness sets in.
Crypto market analyst Benjamin Cowen predicts that Bitcoin could reach its next major cycle peak in late 2025 before entering a downturn in 2026. He said historical data from previous market cycles point to a repeating pattern that investors should not ignore.
Bitcoin’s Historical Cycle Patterns
In an interview on Altcoin Daily, Cowen explained that Bitcoin’s performance over the past decade has followed a consistent cycle. He noted that major peaks have historically occurred in the fourth quarter following a U.S. presidential election year in 2013, 2017, and 2021.
“Based on historical patterns, late 2025 aligns with the next likely top,” Cowen said. “The year that follows, typically the midterm year, often brings a period of market reset.”
He referred to 2014, 2018, and 2022 as examples of those post-peak declines, when Bitcoin fell sharply from its highs before entering new accumulation phases.
Market Indicators Support the Outlook
Cowen cited several technical indicators to support his projection. He highlighted the Bitcoin dominance index, which recently climbed to around 66%, showing that Bitcoin continues to outperform most alternative cryptocurrencies.
“Bitcoin dominance rising is usually a sign that the broader crypto market is not in full risk-on mode,” he said. “It means capital is consolidating in the most established asset.”
He added that the 50-week moving average, currently near $100,000, serves as an important support level. As long as Bitcoin holds above this level, he said, upward momentum could continue. However, a sustained break below it would likely indicate that the market has topped.
Retail Interest Remains Muted
Despite Bitcoin trading near its all-time highs, Cowen observed that retail participation in the crypto market remains low. He said search data and social media activity around cryptocurrencies have fallen sharply since 2021, suggesting limited retail enthusiasm.
“This is one of the quietest markets we’ve seen near the top,” he said. “It’s unusual, but it fits with the broader idea that diminishing returns and slower cycles are defining this era.”
Outlook for Ethereum and Solana
Cowen expects Ethereum to see another rally before the end of the current cycle, with prices potentially reaching between $5,000 and $7,000. However, he warned that Ethereum could also face a significant decline in 2026 once the broader market weakens.
He drew comparisons between Solana and Ethereum’s earlier market behavior, saying Solana may continue to rise for several more months before following a similar correction pattern. “It’s moving like a delayed version of Ethereum’s last cycle,” Cowen said.
Broader Economic Factors
Cowen said the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy will play a key role in shaping the next phase of the crypto market. As long as interest rates remain high and liquidity is constrained, speculative assets such as cryptocurrencies may struggle to maintain long-term gains.
He noted that a more accommodative Fed stance after 2026 could support another wave of market growth, but for now, he urged investors to stay cautious. “The fundamentals are improving, but history shows that price doesn’t always move in sync with fundamentals,” he said.
Long-Term Perspective
While Cowen’s short-term view remains cautious, his long-term outlook for Bitcoin is optimistic. He believes the asset could eventually reach $1 million by 2041 if historical growth trends continue.
He concluded by urging investors to rely on data rather than emotion. “Every cycle has its rhythm,” Cowen said. “The key is to recognize it before the market turns.”
Related: https://coinedition.com/bitcoin-price-prediction-breakdown-deepens-and-98500-comes-into-play/
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Source: https://coinedition.com/benjamin-cowen-predicts-bitcoins-next-major-peak-in-late-2025-followed-by-2026-downturn/
