TLDR

• Bitcoin has historically risen in six of the past eight Decembers, with gains between 8% and 46%
• President Trump proposed a $2,000 tariff dividend stimulus check and 50-year mortgages to improve housing affordability
• Bitcoin dropped 3% in November and remains around $105,000 despite Strategy Inc purchasing 487 more coins
• Whales holding over 10,000 BTC have been net sellers for three months while smaller investors continue buying
• Short seller Jim Chanos closed his position on Strategy Inc after the stock’s premium to Bitcoin holdings dropped from 2.50x to 1.23x

Bitcoin has fallen 3% in November and trades near $105,000. The drop follows a rough October. Traders now look ahead to December hoping for a traditional year-end bounce.

Data from Coinglass shows Bitcoin ended six of the past eight Decembers in positive territory. Gains during these months ranged from 8% to 46%. This pattern has become known as the Santa Claus Rally.

Nick Ruck from LVRG Research says long-term holders have stopped panic selling. They are now buying strategically. He believes Federal Reserve rate cuts and institutional adoption could push prices higher through December.

The Santa Claus Rally happens when Bitcoin rises in December. Year-end optimism and light holiday trading volume can amplify price moves. The pattern reflects market seasonality where prices follow calendar trends.

Traders often shift from selling to accumulation as they prepare for the new year. This sets the tone for liquidity and risk appetite across digital assets.

President Trump recently proposed a $2,000 tariff dividend stimulus check for Americans. He also suggested 50-year mortgages to help housing affordability.

Augustine Fan from SignalPlus compared the tariff dividends to COVID-era stimulus checks. Those checks provided direct money-printing stimulus. The ultra-long mortgages would add capital leverage to the system.

Both measures represent new forms of liquidity easing. Fan says they should benefit risk assets like Bitcoin.

Market Activity Shows Mixed Signals

Strategy Inc bought 487 Bitcoin this week. This brought the company’s total holdings to 641,692 coins. The purchase did little to lift Bitcoin prices.

The U.S. Senate approved a bill to end a government shutdown. The House of Representatives will vote on Wednesday. Investors favored stocks over crypto following this news.

Short seller Jim Chanos closed his position on Strategy Inc. He had bet against the company when it traded at a premium to its Bitcoin holdings. The premium has since fallen from 2.50 times to 1.23 times.

Strategy’s stock dropped 20.4% in 2025. Investors questioned why the company traded above the value of its Bitcoin.

On-chain data reveals interesting holder behavior. Whales with over 10,000 BTC have sold for three straight months. They continue unwinding positions from first-quarter ETF inflows.

Smaller investors holding under 1,000 BTC keep adding to their positions. Their buying has offset some whale selling pressure.

Rachel Lin from SynFutures says Bitcoin volatility in 2026 will stay high. She notes the reasons differ from past cycles. Institutional flows and liquidity conditions matter more than retail speculation now.

Bitcoin shows a 0.6 to 0.7 correlation with U.S. liquidity indicators. These include the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet and M2 growth. If central banks pause easing in 2026, price swings could return quickly.

Other cryptocurrencies followed Bitcoin lower on Tuesday. Ether fell 1.6% to $3,549. XRP rose 0.9% to $2.47. Solana and Cardano each lost over 1%. BNB dropped 2.4%.

Bitcoin currently trades at $105,355 after a 0.7% decline on Tuesday.

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