Recent Bitcoin Drop Driven by Speculators, Not True BTC HODLers — Samson Mow

• Samson Mow has weighed in with his view that the drop is being driven by speculative capital rather than genuine long-term “HODLers.”
• Mow believes that the bull market has not yet begun in full force; thus, what looks like a correction may in fact be a setup for the next leg.

Samson Mow, the founder of Bitcoin technology infrastructure company Jan3, argues that the recent downturn in Bitcoin (BTC) is primarily driven by newer entrants, not long-term believers “HODLers”, who bought over the past 12–18 months and are now cashing out modest 20%–30% gains.

He suggests these are speculators reacting more to headline cycles and “news” than to foundational conviction. Meanwhile, true conviction holders are absorbing supply, setting the stage for what Mow views as a potentially strong 2026.

According to Mow, the primary sellers are “newish” Bitcoin buyers, those who purchased within the last 12–18 months through spot purchases or with exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

These investors are reportedly locking in gains in the 20%–30% range, not because of a fundamental breakdown, but because of a fear-driven narrative: many believe the current market cycle might peak in 2025, and prefer to exit “before it’s too late.”

Weaker Hands Shaken Out, Stronger Hands Remain

Mow points to narratives, specifically media stories about cycle peaks, as amplifiers of this profit-taking behavior. He argues that such narratives disproportionately impact newer participants, prompting them to sell out of fear rather than conviction.

He then asserts that this cohort of news-driven or speculator sellers is “depleted”, having taken profits and exited, which means the remaining supply is now concentrated among holders with stronger conviction. For Mow, that’s always the best-case scenario.

Previously, on November 5, Samson Mow stated that the Bitcoin bull run hasn’t truly started yet. According to Mow, despite Bitcoin’s impressive recovery and stability within its current price range, the asset is merely marginally outperforming inflation rather than demonstrating the growth typical of a full-fledged bull cycle.

When asked by a commentator whether Bitcoin could witness a Christmas god candle, which is a large, sudden surge in price often seen during euphoric phases of a bull market, Mow replied that he was “not uncertain,” implying cautious optimism without making a direct prediction.

He went on to encourage investors to maintain a long-term perspective, stressing that short-term fluctuations should not distract from Bitcoin’s underlying trajectory. “Focus on the big picture. Bitcoin is going to add a zero, it’s just a question of when,” he advised.

JPMorgan analysts project that Bitcoin could climb to around $170,000 within the next six to twelve months, supported by changes in its relative risk profile compared to gold. The Bitcoin-to-gold volatility ratio has declined further below 2.0, meaning Bitcoin now requires roughly 1.8 times more risk capital than gold.

According to the analysis, Bitcoin would need to grow its market capitalization by about 67% from the current $2.1 trillion to match the $6.2 trillion invested in gold by the private sector.

Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $105,023, down 0.99% over the last 24 hours, giving it a market cap of roughly $2.09 trillion.