Moderna (MRNA) Stock: Top Analyst Reiterates ‘Market Perform’ Rating Amid Cost-Cutting Efforts

TLDR

• Moderna reported Q3 revenue of $1.02 billion, down year-over-year, with a net loss of $200 million and lowered its full-year 2025 revenue forecast.
• The company discontinued its CMV vaccine program due to lack of efficacy, representing a setback in its pipeline development efforts.
• Bernstein maintained a Market Perform rating with a $25 price target, noting the company’s progress in cutting costs below consensus expectations.
• Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccine market share appears to have stabilized at around 40%, though overall vaccination rates continue to decline.
• The company beat Q3 earnings expectations with EPS of -$0.51 versus the forecasted -$2.05, while revenue exceeded estimates at $1.02 billion.

Moderna posted third quarter results that beat analyst expectations while simultaneously lowering its outlook for the year ahead. The biotech company reported earnings per share of -$0.51, better than the forecasted -$2.05.

Revenue for the quarter reached $1.02 billion. This topped the anticipated $909.97 million but represented a decrease from the prior year period.

Moderna, Inc., MRNA

The company recorded a net loss of $200 million for the quarter. Moderna also revised down its full-year 2025 revenue guidance and reduced its research and development expense projections.

The cost cutting measures came through clearly in the quarterly numbers. Both cost of goods sold and R&D spending landed below what Wall Street had expected.

Bernstein analysts maintained their Market Perform rating on the stock with a $25 price target. The firm called these expense reductions “critical” for Moderna as it works to reach breakeven.

Pipeline Setback and Program Changes

The company made a major decision regarding its vaccine pipeline. Moderna discontinued its cytomegalovirus vaccine program due to lack of efficacy.

This represents a clear setback for the company’s efforts to diversify beyond COVID-19 products. The CMV vaccine had been viewed as a potential growth driver.

Moderna is advancing regulatory submissions for other respiratory vaccines. The company reported progress on these fronts during its earnings announcement.

The discontinuation highlights the risks inherent in vaccine development. Not every program makes it through clinical trials successfully.

Community estimates for Moderna’s fair value vary widely. Twenty-five analysts on Simply Wall St place the stock between $39.15 and $175 per share.

COVID-19 Vaccine Market Position

Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccine market share has found a floor. The company now holds approximately 40% of the market.

This stabilization offers some certainty after periods of market share fluctuation. However, the overall vaccination rate continues to trend downward.

Bernstein updated its model to reflect lower expectations for both COVID-19 and RSV vaccines going forward. The firm improved its full-year EPS forecast to -$8.30 from -$9.88.

The analyst noted the path to profitability remains challenging. Revenue is projected to decline 56% year-over-year.

InvestingPro data shows the company burning through cash with negative free cash flow of $2.65 billion. The current ratio stands at 3.93, indicating some financial cushion.

Analysts forecast a 41% sales decline for the current year. This reflects the ongoing challenges in the COVID-19 vaccine market.

Research and development expenses came in lower than expected. This helped the company beat earnings estimates despite revenue pressures.

The company’s narrative projects $3.5 billion in revenue by 2028. This would require 4.6% yearly revenue growth from current levels.

Earnings would need to increase by $3.4 billion from the current loss of $2.9 billion. Some analysts value the stock at $40.30, representing a 53% upside.

Moderna beat Q3 earnings expectations and demonstrated progress on cost management while facing continued revenue headwinds from declining COVID-19 vaccination rates.

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