Bernstein Reaffirms $54 Price Target for Figure on Strong Tokenized Loan Growth

TLDR

• Figure’s Q3 performance exceeded expectations, with 60% higher EBITDA driven by tokenized loans.

• Bernstein sees a 56% upside for Figure, maintaining an outperform rating and $54 target.

• Figure’s tokenized partner channels saw a 48% quarter-over-quarter growth in loan volume.

• The company’s AI-powered smart contracts and tokenization continue to drive long-term profitability.

Figure Technologies, the blockchain-based platform for loan origination, posted an impressive performance for Q3 2025, surpassing analysts’ expectations. According to a report from Bernstein, the company’s adjusted revenue reached about $156 million, which was 30% higher than the consensus forecast of $119 million. Meanwhile, adjusted EBITDA soared to $86 million, exceeding expectations by 60%.

This “massive beat” was largely attributed to the company’s accelerating growth in tokenized loan volumes. Figure’s innovative approach to loan origination, powered by its blockchain platform and tokenized assets, has proven effective in driving higher volumes and improving profitability. The company’s performance was particularly strong in home-equity line of credit (HELOC) origination, which accounted for the majority of loan volumes during the quarter.

Mike Cagney, the CEO of Figure, has successfully grown the company into the leading independent non-bank HELOC originator in the U.S., and this momentum is now propelling it forward. In September 2025, the company went public on the Nasdaq, a milestone that signals growing confidence in its platform and business model.

Tokenized Loans and Partner Channels Drive Strong Performance

Figure’s impressive Q3 performance was driven in part by its partner-originated and tokenized loans, which made up roughly 76% of the company’s total loan volume for the quarter. These tokenized loans represent a core component of the company’s asset-light business model. Figure Connect, the company’s blockchain-based loan origination platform, continued to expand its influence, contributing approximately 46% of all loan activity during the quarter.

The rapid growth of tokenized loan volumes reflects strong adoption of blockchain-based lending, where assets are digitized and transferred as tokens. JPMorgan’s tokenization technology, which Figure utilizes, has been key in making these transactions more efficient and secure, while ensuring that they remain in compliance with regulatory standards.

In total, Figure originated about $2.5 billion in loans during Q3, marking a 34% increase in total loan originations from the previous quarter. This growth was driven by the continued expansion of the company’s partner ecosystem, which saw an increase in active participants from 170 to 246. With $80 million coming from newer loan categories such as crypto-backed loans and small business loans, Figure’s model is proving to be adaptable and scalable across various sectors.

Profitability and Operating Leverage Drive EBITDA Growth

In addition to the strong growth in loan volumes, Figure’s profitability in Q3 was bolstered by operating leverage and improved take rates. The company’s take rate—the amount it earns per dollar of loan volume—rose by 36 basis points to 4.2% on partner-branded loans and 82 basis points to 7.1% on Figure-branded loans.

This increase in take rates, combined with the surge in tokenized loan volumes, allowed Figure to expand its EBITDA margins to nearly 55%, up from about 47% in the previous quarter.

Bernstein analysts noted that Figure’s operating expenses grew more slowly than its revenue, indicating that the company is benefiting from increased efficiency and scalability in its operations. The growth of Figure Connect is central to this success, as the platform continues to attract new users and expand its market share.

Tokenized Loans as the Key Driver of Growth

Bernstein analysts have reaffirmed their outperform rating and $54 price target for Figure stock, citing the company’s continued leadership in the tokenized loan space. The $54 target implies a 56% upside from Figure’s current share price of $34.59. Analysts believe that the company’s tokenized B2B payment system, powered by blockchain technology, will be a key driver of growth in the coming years.

The continued success of Figure Connect and its partner-driven loan origination model positions the company for long-term growth in the credit tokenization space. However, analysts caution that macroeconomic factors, such as aggressive interest rate declines or a slowdown in the private-credit cycle, could impact Figure’s performance in the future.

In the short term, Figure’s strong position in the loan market and its ability to drive profitability through its tokenization platform will remain key factors for investors to monitor. With continued growth in both consumer loan volumes and tokenized loan offerings, Figure is well-positioned to continue its momentum through 2025 and beyond.

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