Bitcoin rebounds above 100K as market absorbs Middle East conflict escalation fears

Bitcoin has clawed its way back above the $100,000 after briefly dipping below the key psychological level for the first time in months driven by Middle East geopolitical tensions.

The rebound follows a steep sell-off brought on by rising Middle East tensions after U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. A wave of liquidations followed, pushing Bitcoin down almost 4% to a multi-week low of $98,615 on June 22. Meanwhile, Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) saw losses of up to 10% and 5%, respectively.

The airstrikes, confirmed by President Donald Trump, marked a major escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict. Iran’s planned closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for 20% of global oil shipments, raised fears that oil prices could spike to $120–$130 per barrel and push U.S. inflation back up toward 5%. 

The immediate result was a flight to safe-haven assets like gold and the U.S. dollar, a $40 billion wipeout of the cryptocurrency market, and almost $1 billion in long-position liquidations. However, signs of stabilization emerged quickly.

Bitcoin recovered above $100,000 thanks to a 75.8% increase in daily trading volume to more than $48.4 billion. Despite a slight decline in open interest, Coinglass data shows that derivatives activity also surged, with volume rising 67% to $136 billion. This indicates that some market participants reduced their exposure in the face of uncertainty but may be returning.

From a technical perspective, the general trend is still bearish for the near future. Bitcoin is trading below its downward-sloping 10-day and 20-day exponential moving averages. Weak upward momentum and a tilt toward the lower band near $98,000, a crucial support zone, are indicated by the Bitcoin’s price hovering below the Bollinger Bands’ midline.

Momentum indicators show mixed signals. With a relative strength index of 39, the market is weak but not yet oversold. The stochastic RSI and stochastic oscillators are in buy territory, suggesting a potential short-term recovery. The 10-day momentum and moving average convergence divergence, however, are still firmly bearish.

Bitcoin may retest resistance in the $105,000–$106,000 range if geopolitical tensions subside. On the flip side, many analysts on X warn of further declines towards $92,000 or lower if the conflict intensifies, especially given Iran’s threats of retaliation.

The speed of diplomatic resolution and whether exchange-traded fund inflows can continue to withstand sell-side pressure will likely determine how Bitcoin responds, as has been the case in previous crises.