Analysts at Weiss Crypto have offered a measured outlook for Bitcoin’s next market phase, pointing to liquidity trends as a key signal for what comes next.
Their model, renowned for accurately forecasting Bitcoin’s multi-month corrections, now suggests that the bull market may be nearing exhaustion, although it is not yet entirely over.
According to the firm, global liquidity, particularly from Asia, has long been one of the most reliable predictors of Bitcoin’s short-term corrections. However, it has never precisely forecast a four-year cycle top.
Historically, Bitcoin has either peaked alongside liquidity, as in November 2021, or months before, as seen in 2013 and 2017. Weiss Crypto noted that “If Bitcoin begins to deviate from liquidity with an 84-day lag, we must check whether Bitcoin has begun following liquidity in real time.” That pattern, they say, is precisely what’s unfolding now.
Despite this caution, Weiss maintains a neutral outlook on Bitcoin, unchanged since late August. The model would only turn Bearish if BTC closes a week below $96,000.
“The bull market isn’t necessarily over,” the report adds. “This has been a strange four-year cycle. Which means the next down phase may not resemble a traditional bear market and there’s still gas in the tank.”
Liquidity is projected to improve again in 2026, potentially setting the stage for the next growth wave.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at around $94,261, down 1.77% over the past week and 16.15% in the last 30 days, as per CoinMarketCap. The global cryptocurrency market cap stands at $3.18 trillion, down nearly 18%, while Bitcoin’s dominance remains near 59.5%.
Meanwhile, market anxiety is high, as revealed by a Fear & Greed Index of 25 (Fear), with BTC 20% below its all-time high.
Market analyst Joe Consorti believes this “extreme fear” could signal a local bottom. He noted similar sentiment spikes during two past corrections: one after eight months of consolidation and another this April during a 32% drawdown.
Source: https://zycrypto.com/experts-behind-historically-accurate-btc-model-shares-near-term-prediction-for-crypto-market/
