Michael Saylor’s Strategy falls under NAV as analysts warn of a potential Bitcoin plunge

Strategy Inc., the Michael Saylor-led business intelligence company turned Bitcoin treasury, fell below its net asset value on Friday for the first time in nearly two years after Bitcoin slipped back under the $100,000 mark after holding that level for about three days.

Last week’s gloom on the crypto market extended into Monday and took Bitcoin briefly below $95,000, which also pushed Strategy’s stock under $200 per share, dragging its market-to-NAV ratio to 0.977x. 

As confirmed by Cryptopolitan’s reports, the New York-based software and business company currently holds about 641,205 bitcoins, valued at approximately $61.3 billion at current market prices recorded on CoinGecko. Yet Google Finance data shows its market capitalization has fallen 9% in the past week to $57.40 billion. 

The discrepancy means investors are effectively able to gain exposure to Bitcoin at a roughly 6% discount by purchasing MSTR shares rather than buying the crypto directly.

Strategy class A shares drop could cause Bitcoin and crypto market slump

According to market watchers, the fall in Strategy’s NAV could mean investors are worried about its shares’ dilution, leverage and the structure of the company’s Bitcoin-heavy balance sheet. The company frequently issues stock to acquire more BTC, a business plan that leans on the shares trading at a premium to the Bitcoin the firm buys.

Dom Kwok, co-founder of blockchain education app developer EasyA, said Strategy’s business model is sensitive to how the market values the company relative to its holdings. According to him, no corporate treasury with substantial BTC reserves has ever traded below its net asset value for long without facing pressure on its strategy.

Kwok noted that Strategy’s approach functions only when its market-to-NAV ratio stays above 1. A premium gives the firm an incentive to issue new shares to acquire more Bitcoin without meaningfully reducing existing shareholders’ exposure, and once the shares trade at a discount, that calculus flips over. 

“Strategy gives away more ownership through its undervalued shares than it receives in return, via bitcoin. If MSTR stock continues to decline, expect volatility across the market,” Kwom surmised, insisting the class A stock performance will determine investor confidence in BTC.

Arca executive disputes chatter of BTC forced selling

Jeff Dorman, chief investment officer at digital assets firm Arca, says there are persistent misconceptions about the Strategy’s financial structure and its impact on Bitcoin markets. In a lengthy post on X late Sunday, Dorman disputed theories about the firm selling part of its massive Bitcoin holdings, mostly based on misunderstandings about corporate debt, equity and governance.

“It takes <5 minutes talking to any debt/equity expert to understand that he will never have to sell his $BTC unless it has already fallen so far that his selling is an irrelevant afterthought. He may never buy BTC again. And if your entire Bitcoin thesis is that one buyer will buy forever you’re definitely wrong,” the CIO argued.

Per Dorman, crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are far more significant marginal buyers and could likely influence the market more than any single corporate treasury.

Dorman also dismissed the idea that Strategy could face an activist campaign to force sales of its BTC holdings, noting that Saylor controls roughly 42% of voting power. He said the firm’s debt carries no covenants requiring liquidations and its core software business generates positive cash flow, keeping interest obligations manageable. 

“Interest expense is low and manageable – don’t forget the core tech business still has positive cash flow. No one ever defaults because of debt maturities. Investors are sheep and will almost always roll the debt (extend and pretend). If you follow anyone saying MSTR is a risk to BTC, tell them to call me,” he concluded.

Bitcoin fear-greed sentiment collapses to 10

Strategy’s discount to NAV surfaced during Bitcoin’s Fear and Greed Index slump to 10 on Monday, its lowest reading since the market crash triggered by the COVID-19 outbreak in 2020.

Price charts show Bitcoin retesting a breakdown level near $95,500, where sellers continue to reject upward attempts. As long as the price stays below that band, more declines toward the $93,200 to $92,200 region are more likely to happen. 

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