Xpeng (XPEV) Stock Falls as Strong Q3 Results Overshadowed by Disappointing Guidance

TLDR

• Xpeng posted Q3 loss of RMB0.16 per share, well below analyst estimates of RMB0.57 loss
• Vehicle deliveries surged 149.3% to 116,007 units with revenue up 101.8% to RMB20.38 billion
• Gross margin expanded to 20.1% while vehicle margin reached 13.1%
• Q4 revenue forecast of RMB21.5-23.0 billion missed RMB25.09 billion consensus estimate
• Stock fell approximately 2% in premarket trading on weaker guidance

Xpeng delivered a mixed bag of results Monday as the Chinese EV maker crushed earnings expectations but stumbled on forward guidance. Shares dropped around 2% in premarket trading.

XPeng Inc., XPEV

The company reported a Q3 loss of RMB0.16 per share. Wall Street had braced for a RMB0.57 per share loss. Revenue jumped 101.8% year-over-year to RMB20.38 billion, narrowly missing the RMB20.63 billion consensus.

Vehicle sales generated RMB18.05 billion, up 105.3% from last year. The company delivered 116,007 vehicles during the quarter, a 149.3% increase compared to Q3 2024.

Profitability Metrics Improve

Xpeng’s margin story looked encouraging. Gross margin hit 20.1%, up from 15.3% a year ago and 17.3% in Q2. Vehicle margin came in at 13.1%, beating last year’s 8.6% but dipping slightly from Q2’s 14.3%.

The company’s cash position remained healthy at RMB48.33 billion. This included cash, equivalents, restricted cash, short-term investments and time deposits as of September 30.

He highlighted future projects including Robotaxi and humanoid robots moving toward mass production. The CEO expressed confidence that Xpeng would become “a global embodied AI company.”

Weak Q4 Outlook Concerns Market

The fourth quarter forecast disappointed investors. Xpeng expects deliveries between 125,000 and 132,000 vehicles, representing 36.6% to 44.3% annual growth.

Revenue guidance ranged from RMB21.5 billion to RMB23.0 billion. Analysts had penciled in RMB25.09 billion. The gap between expectations and guidance likely triggered the stock decline.

Research and development spending climbed 48.7% year-over-year to RMB2.43 billion. The company continues investing heavily in technology development.

Net loss totaled RMB0.38 billion for the quarter. Non-GAAP net loss came in at RMB0.15 billion, showing improvement from earlier periods.

Key Takeaways

The quarter demonstrated Xpeng’s ability to scale rapidly. Delivery growth of 149.3% outpaced revenue growth of 101.8%, indicating strong unit economics. Margin expansion across both gross and vehicle metrics showed operational efficiency gains.

However, the conservative Q4 guidance raised questions. The projected revenue range falls roughly 15% below analyst expectations, suggesting potential headwinds or cautious management.

The company’s RMB48.33 billion cash position provides runway for continued investment. R&D expenses rising 48.7% signal ongoing commitment to product development and technological advancement.

Xpeng forecasts Q4 deliveries of 125,000-132,000 vehicles with revenue between RMB21.5 billion and RMB23.0 billion, below the RMB25.09 billion analyst consensus.

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