Crypto historically does well in Q4 — not this time

For months, big-name crypto boosters promised an “unbelievable” fourth quarter (Q4) — and they weren’t wrong, just not in the way they intended.

Bitcoin, the industry’s top digital asset, has performed poorly since Q4 began. It hit a six-month low over the weekend as liquidity thinned across global markets.

The coin dropped to the 92,970 range on Sunday and has since hovered around 94,900 at last check on Nov. 17.

Bitcoin (BTC) has averaged 77% gains in the past fourth quarters, while Ethereum (ETH) typically climbs about 19%.

Since last week, Bitcoin has been down over 10%, while Ethereum has been down over 11%.

And Solana (SOL) is down over 24% since Q4 began and over 16% over the past seven days.

A chorus of confident predictions

The downturn is especially striking given the number of prominent figures across finance and crypto that hyped up crypto heading into Q4. American Bitcoin Corp. co-founder Eric Trump declared Q4 would be “unbelievable.” He was wrong.

Analysts at JPMorgan and Citi also forecast a powerful year-end rally driven by ETF inflows, with Bitcoin targets ranging from $133,000 to $165,000. Asset manager VanEck went further, projecting Bitcoin at $180,000 by year-end 2025, alongside major surges in Ethereum and Solana.

Influential voices in the crypto community chimed in too: market analyst Ted Pillows expected a 35% rally, commentator Scott Melker floated a path to $250,000, and X personality Ash Crypto predicted Bitcoin would race to $150,000–$180,000.

Instead, the quarter has delivered the opposite — a slump driven by risk-off sentiment, slowing institutional inflows, and renewed regulatory pressure that has cooled what many expected to be a broad-based rally.

Far from confirming the bulls’ projections, Q4 has reminded investors that crypto’s seasonal patterns are anything but guaranteed.

So what happened to crypto’s historically strong finish?

A mix of macro uncertainty, AI-driven capital rotation, and overextended expectations. The lesson heading into year-end: in crypto, even the most “unbelievable” predictions can come true — just not in the direction the forecasters had in mind.