Are Our Major Parties Providing An Opening?

Several substantial new public opinion polls show how similarly and negatively the public views the Republican and Democratic parties. This sea of negativity would seem to suggest that conditions are ripe for a third party, but they aren’t. A look at the data explains why.

The Pew Research Center did its deep dive into perceptions of the Republican and Democratic parties in September, and the Harvard Center for American Political Studies/Harris released its early November poll of registered voters last week. The Economist/YouGov poll from early this November adds weight to the findings.

In the Harvard/Harris poll, 56% of registered voters disapproved and 44% approved of the way the Republican Party was handling its job. A virtually identical 57% disapproved of the Democratic Party while 43% approved. Roughly equal shares in the Pew poll were angry with the GOP (49%) and separately, with the Democratic Party (50%). Only small numbers of Americans were proud of either party.

Both parties are seen as extreme. A solid majority, 62%, in Pew’s poll said the GOP was too extreme. Nearly as many, 56%, gave that response about the Democrats. Identical percentages in the Economist/YouGov poll said each party was too extreme. In the Harvard/Harris poll, a plurality, 43%, said the Republican Party was moving away from their own personal views, and 25% said it was closer to them. Those responses for the Democratic Party were a virtually identical, 45% and 27%, respectively. Yet another parallel: 40% nationally said the Democrats were moving farther to the left (42% said the party was staying the same), while 42% said the Republicans were moving farther to the right (42% staying the same).

There are slivers of good news for Republicans in these polls. The Republicans appear to have a slight edge on getting things done, even though many Americans aren’t enthusiastic about what’s being done. Slightly more in Pew’s poll were hopeful about the Republicans (36%) than about the Democrats, 28%. In the poll, fewer people said they were “frustrated” with the Republican Party (64%) than the Democratic Party (75%), but both responses are still high. Frustration has grown with both parties since Pew first asked these questions in 2016. In the late October ABC/Washington Post/Ipsos poll, 68% said the Democratic Party was out of touch with the concerns of most Americans, and 61% gave that response in a separate question about the GOP.

Do overall negative findings mean there is room for a third party? A careful reading of the polls shows that many Americans like the idea of a third party. But hypothetical questions like these are often meaningless, as new Gallup polling shows. In Gallup’s trend, around 60% over the past decade have told the pollster that the two political parties “do such a poor job that a third major party is needed.” But when Gallup probed more deeply, only 15% said they would be likely to vote for a third party or independent political candidate for president. While independents were more enthusiastic about a new party, only 29% of them said they would be very likely to vote for this candidate! Seven percent of Democrats and 9% of Republicans gave this response.

Skepticism of a third party’s chances are to some extent a function of the major parties long existence (the Democrats are the oldest, the Republicans third oldest parties in the world) and the fact that party ties are deep and real things. Over time, both parties have adapted to changing opinions and new issues keeping them in business. When considering a third party, people may be thinking about the huge financial and organizational hurdles such a party would confront. And they may worry about throwing away their vote on a new entity whose chances are slim.

But there may be another reason. Post-election polling by Pew in elections stretching back to 1988 reveals satisfaction with the presidential candidates of the major parties. In Pew’s 2024 post-election survey, 52% said they were very or fairly satisfied with the choice of presidential candidates, similar to the 2020 response, 56%. These aren’t overwhelming majorities, but they are solid. Since 1988, majorities were satisfied in every presidential election except one, 2016, when 44% gave that response about the choices they had.

Each party still has its strengths, but neither party is seen as performing well on the issue that Americans care about most- high and punishing inflation. Both parties have problems with their extremes, and it remains to be seen how these play out. Despite this, the obstacles to a third party are formidable indeed.