Strategy Holds S&P 500 Hopes Alive After MSTR Stock Loses 37% YTD

TLDR

• Matrixport confirms Strategy remains on track for potential S&P 500 inclusion by December despite recent market turmoil.
• The MSTR stock has crashed over 37% year-to-date and now trades below $200 after reaching a 2025 high of $455.
• Strategy’s market net asset value has dropped below 1 with its market cap now less than its total Bitcoin holdings value.
• Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart estimates less than 50% probability of Strategy gaining S&P 500 inclusion.
• Matrixport does not view debt-related Bitcoin liquidation as a near-term risk for the company.

Research firm Matrixport confirms Strategy could still join the S&P 500 index by December. The MSTR stock has crashed alongside Bitcoin, yet analysts see potential for inclusion in the index. Michael Saylor’s company continues to hold the most extensive corporate Bitcoin treasury.

The MSTR stock has fallen from a 2025 high of $455 to below $200. This decline represents a year-to-date loss of over 37%. The stock’s market net asset value (mNAV) has dropped below 1.

MSTR Stock Crashes But Index Hopes Remain

Matrixport shared its analysis on X, stating Strategy remains on track for S&P 500 consideration. The company missed a September listing opportunity to Robinhood, AppLovin, and Emcor. December presents another chance for the MSTR stock to gain index inclusion.

Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart previously confirmed the company’s eligibility for the S&P 500. Strategy recorded positive earnings for two consecutive quarters, driven by its Bitcoin holdings. However, Seyffart estimated a probability of actual inclusion of less than 50%.

The MSTR stock now trades at a market cap below the value of its total Bitcoin holdings. Veteran trader Peter Brandt warned Bitcoin could drop below $50,000. Such a decline would put Strategy’s entire BTC portfolio underwater.

Matrixport stated it does not view debt-related Bitcoin liquidation as a near-term risk. Rumors had circulated that Strategy was selling its BTC holdings. Saylor denied these claims and announced an $836 million Bitcoin purchase last week.

The research firm identified the real pressure point for MSTR stock investors. Those who bought shares at inflated net asset values now face NAV compression effects. Strategy raised most of its capital when the stock traded near its all-time high of $474.

The company’s NAV peaked during that capital-raising period. Investors who entered at those levels have experienced substantial losses. The MSTR stock has erased all year-to-date gains.

Saylor Defends Strategy’s Bitcoin Treasury Model

Michael Saylor described Strategy’s approach as “indestructible” during recent commentary. He asserted the company can withstand an 80% to 90% decline. Operations would continue without disruption even in extreme scenarios.

Saylor emphasized that Strategy designed its model to survive through severe drawdowns. The company structure allows for continued operation regardless of market conditions. This defense comes as critics question the sustainability of the treasury-driven model.

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