Strategy’s S&P 500 Inclusion Possible Despite Bitcoin-Related Losses

TLDR

• Strategy’s MSTR stock lost over 37% in 2025, but Bitcoin holdings remain intact.
• Michael Saylor remains confident in Bitcoin’s future despite market corrections.
• MicroStrategy’s mNAV drops below 1, yet S&P 500 inclusion remains possible.
• MSTR shares and Bitcoin’s volatility trigger concerns, yet no forced liquidation risk.

MicroStrategy’s bid for inclusion in the S&P 500 remains a possibility, even as its MSTR stock continues to lose value and Bitcoin prices experience significant volatility. Despite concerns about the company’s financial outlook, its business model based on Bitcoin holdings has endured the recent market turbulence. Analysts have pointed to the potential for S&P 500 inclusion by December, although opinions about its chances vary.

Saylor Stays Confident in MicroStrategy’s Model

Michael Saylor, the executive chairman of Strategy, has expressed unwavering confidence in the company’s ability to weather the downturn in Bitcoin’s price. The firm continues to hold a significant Bitcoin treasury of nearly 650,000 BTC, valued at over $59 billion. Despite recent losses, Saylor emphasized that the company’s business model is resilient enough to endure 80% to 90% drawdowns without disruption.

Speaking to Fox Business, Saylor downplayed concerns that the growing presence of institutional investors in Bitcoin has led to increased volatility. He pointed out that Bitcoin’s annualized volatility has decreased from approximately 80% in 2020 to about 50% today, suggesting the asset class is maturing. Saylor further projected that Bitcoin’s volatility would eventually stabilize at about 1.5 times that of the S&P 500, while still outperforming it over time.

MSTR Stock Faces Pressure as Bitcoin Declines

The decline in Bitcoin’s price has directly impacted MicroStrategy’s stock, with its market cap now below the value of its Bitcoin holdings. MSTR shares closed at $206.80, marking an 11.5% drop over the past five days. This price drop follows Bitcoin’s recent fall to below $92,000, erasing gains made earlier in 2025. At present, MicroStrategy’s market net asset value (mNAV) has slipped to 1.11x, a significant drop from the 1.52x multiple seen when Bitcoin was priced at $125,100 in October.

Despite these challenges, MicroStrategy remains committed to its strategy of acquiring and holding Bitcoin. The company continues to add to its Bitcoin holdings, most recently purchasing $836 million in BTC. In addition, Saylor has consistently dismissed rumors about the company being forced to liquidate its Bitcoin holdings to cover financial obligations, emphasizing that such a scenario is not a near-term risk.

S&P 500 Inclusion Still in Play for MicroStrategy

Despite recent volatility, MicroStrategy’s eligibility for S&P 500 inclusion remains intact. Matrixport analysts have suggested that the company’s positive earnings, largely due to its Bitcoin holdings, could support its bid for inclusion in the index by December 2025. Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart also noted that while the likelihood of inclusion is less than 50%, MicroStrategy’s recent performance puts it in the running for S&P 500 membership.

MicroStrategy’s bid was previously delayed in September, when it missed out on inclusion, losing out to companies such as Robinhood, AppLovin, and Emcor. However, analysts have suggested that the company’s performance and market capitalization could meet the necessary criteria for inclusion in the coming months.

Despite the recent decline in both Bitcoin and MSTR stock, analysts argue that MicroStrategy’s corporate strategy, anchored in Bitcoin accumulation, remains viable for long-term growth. However, some experts remain cautious, with veteran trader Peter Brandt warning that Bitcoin’s price could fall further, potentially putting the company “underwater” if its Bitcoin holdings lose substantial value. Yet, for now, Saylor’s confidence and the company’s strategic focus on Bitcoin continue to steer its path forward.

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