The September jobs report is finally coming out Thursday. What it may show

The Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday will release the September nonfarm payrolls number, ending a shutdown-induced blackout on official jobs data, albeit with a decidedly rear-window view.

Due at 8:30 a.m. ET, the release is forecast to show a gain of 50,000 jobs in the public and private sectors, up from the initially reported 22,000 in August but still indicative of a soft labor market.

Though the report will be backward-looking, it at least will provide some fodder for investors, economists and Federal Reserve officials who have had to rely on a host of private alternative data during the record-long shutdown in Washington, D.C. It will be the first BLS jobs report since the August release on Sept. 5.

“My sense is that the both the September report and the revisions for July and August will suggest a little bit brighter outlook than is commonly assumed, but not much to brag about,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM. “The labor market is holding in there, just like the economy.”

Coming a week after the government impasse ended, the data also is expected to show the unemployment rate at 4.3% while average hourly earnings increased 0.3% for the month and 3.7% from a year ago, all numbers unchanged from August, according to Dow Jones consensus estimates.

Because the numbers are from September, they will provide only a little help for policymakers trying to navigate a difficult landscape and could be disregarded by markets. Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently referred to the situation as “driving in the fog” and cautioned against looking at further interest rate cuts as guaranteed while officials look for direction.

While one month’s jobs report will help clear up some of the way, visibility will remain limited.

‘Pervasive uncertainty’

The BLS on Wednesday updated its release dates for the data points it produces.

The bureau will not release October’s jobs report separately, instead including it with the November report, which has been pushed to Dec. 16 from its original release date of Dec. 5. There will be no unemployment rate released for October due to household data that the BLS will not be able to collect. Similarly, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey will see a combined September and October release on Dec. 9.

The BLS on Oct. 24 released September’s consumer price index report only because it is used as a benchmark for Social Security cost of living adjustments.

“The economy is muddling through a period of pervasive uncertainty,” Brusuelas said. “Because of the duration of the shutdown, I don’t think we’re going to get a clean reading until early February on where the labor market’s at.”

Nevertheless, other data, such as the private payrolls running tally from ADP along with layoff announcements from job placement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas and a host of other indicators are providing some clues on where the labor market stands.

In fact, Fed Governor Christopher Waller in a speech Monday rejected the notion that the Fed doesn’t have enough data to make decisions.

“Policymakers and forecasters are not ‘flying blind’ or ‘in a fog,'” Waller said in a speech advocating a December rate cut. “While it is always nice to have more data, as economists, we are skilled at using whatever available data there is to formulate forecasts.”

Judging by data revealed so far, Goldman Sachs holds an above-consensus view of 80,000 jobs created in September but sees a decline of 50,000 in October, due largely to the expiration of the federal government’s deferred resignation program from cuts associated with Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency.

“While we do not expect the Bureau of Labor Statistics to produce an October unemployment rate, we estimate it likely would have increased, reflecting upward pressure from shutdown-related furloughs and increases in broader measures of labor market slack,” Goldman economists Ronnie Walker and Jessica Rindels said in a note.

In addition to the September headline number, Thursday’s report also will include revisions for July and August. Both Brusuelas and the Goldman economists said they expect those numbers to come in higher than the previous counts.