Bitcoin attempts ‘fragile lift’ as Fed signals patience on rate cuts

Bitcoin edged higher on Thursday as crypto markets tried to stabilize following days of ETF redemptions and retail selling, while the U.S. Federal Reserve’s latest minutes reinforced policymakers’ preference for more evidence before committing to further rate cuts.

Bitcoin climbed 2.7% to around $93,000, according to The Block's BTC price page, recovering from lows under $90,000 but remaining below key structural levels tracked by onchain analysts.

Timothy Misir, BRN’s head of research, argued that the onchain picture looks tense. He noted Bitcoin has slipped below the 0.75 cost-basis quantile — a level that historically separates normal pullbacks from deeper trend shifts.

Misir said bitcoin is now "pressuring the Active Investors zone, a crucial pivot," adding that the market has entered a period defined by retail capitulation and whale accumulation. Wallets holding more than 1,000 BTC have grown 2.2%, reaching the highest level in four months, while smaller retail wallets continue to reduce holdings.

Bitcoin risk indicators | Image: Glassnode

"Today’s gains look more like stabilization after capitulation rather than the beginning of a new impulse," Misir said. "Bitcoin must reclaim the 0.75 quantile to restore bullish momentum. Until bitcoin reclaims key on-chain levels, expect two-way volatility and sharp rotations."

Elsewhere, The Block's price shows that ether held the $3,000 handle after a volatile week, while Solana outperformed with a 3% rise to roughly $142. Total crypto market capitalization moved back above $3.2 trillion, though market depth remains thin after last week’s deleveraging.

Tepid sentiment after Wall Street buys

A temporary shift in ETF flows likely helped to cushion prices for a moderate rise. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $75 million in net inflows — the first positive session after four straight days of heavy outflows, according to The Block's data dashboard.

However, ether ETFs continued their decline, posting $37 million in net outflows, extending their losing streak to a seventh day. Solana products again stood out, adding $55 million in inflows.

Despite a positive day for BTC on Wall Street following Nvidia's blowout earnings, broader market conviction suggested uncertainty. Open interest in derivatives continues to shrink, funding rates sit near neutral, and The Block's Fear & Greed Index remains pinned near the extreme fear zone. Bitcoin is down nearly 2% year to date, reflecting the recent selloff that has erased earlier gains.

Fed keeps conditional stance

The Fed's minutes offered little clarity for traders hoping for a December cut. While inflation is improving, officials emphasized "confirmation before cuts," signaling that easing remains possible but not guaranteed.

BRN's Misir said the conditional messaging has weighed on broader risk sentiment, preventing markets from building a one-way trade around imminent policy support.

Nvidia's earnings delivered the opposite effect, boosting sentiment in tech and giving risk markets a short-term lift. The chipmaker reported fiscal third-quarter revenue of around $57 billion, with guidance toward $65 billion for the next quarter, helping stabilize risk assets after Tuesday’s crypto-led drawdown.

"Bitcoin has been all over the place in the last 24 hours, pulled in different directions by conflicting news," said Nic Puckrin, co-founder of The Coin Bureau. "If the positive mood in tech continues into the weekend, Bitcoin will likely follow. BTC has been down for over seven days, so today’s move higher could mark the start of a reversal."

Puckrin highlighted $107,500 as the next resistance level if upside momentum builds, and $75,000 as a strong downside support zone should macro jitters intensify.