The September U.S. jobs report beat estimates, with both the nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate coming in higher than expected. Bitcoin rose on the back of the report release, as the rise in the unemployment rate strengthens the case for a rate cut, which is a positive for risk assets.
U.S. Job Report Beat Expectations, Bitcoin Rises
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data showed that the U.S. added 119,000 jobs in September, well above expectations of 53,000. This also marks a significant increase from the 22,000 jobs added in August, which was revised downwards.
Meanwhile, the jobs report also showed that the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in September, above expectations of 4.3%. This also marks the highest unemployment rate since October 2021.
Furthermore, the weekly jobless claims for the week ended November 15 came in at 220,000, below the estimate of 227,000. The Bitcoin price rose on the back of the jobs report, breaking above $92,000 after dropping to as low as $88,800 yesterday.
Source: TradingView; Bitcoin Daily ChartTradingView data shows that BTC is now hovering around $91,600 at press time. The rise in the unemployment rate is a positive for BTC and the broader crypto market, as Fed Chair Jerome Powell has stated he is watching the unemployment rate more than the headline jobs number.
As such, this strengthens the case for another rate cut as it indicates that the labor market is still softening despite the rebound in the nonfarm payrolls. It is also worth mentioning that this is the major jobs data that the Fed will have to work with heading into the December FOMC meeting, as the BLS already canceled the October jobs report due to the government shutdown.
The BLS also announced that it will release the November jobs report on December 16, after the December FOMC meeting on December 10. Meanwhile, it is possible some Fed officials may view the jobs report as indicating that the labor market is stabilizing and that there may be no need for another cut at the December meeting.
Odds Of A Cut At The December Meeting Climb
CME FedWatch data shows that the odds of a December Fed rate cut have climbed to 44% today. The odds of a December cut had dropped to as low as 34% yesterday after the BLS canceled the October jobs report and announced that the November jobs report would be released after the December FOMC meeting.
Source: CME FedWatchAs such, this is one of the major employment data that the Fed will have to work with heading into the December meeting. Other such Fed officials, such as Fed President Raphael Bostic, have also warned against the inflation risk, which makes another Fed rate cut far from certain.
Meanwhile, Fed President Beth Hammack commented on the jobs report, noting that it looked a bit mixed. She added that it also highlighted the challenges faced by monetary policy. In her opening remarks at the Cleveland Fed’s 2025 Financial Stability Conference, she had already warned that further rate cuts risk prolonging elevated inflation, keeping it way above their 2% target.
Source: https://coingape.com/u-s-jobs-report-comes-in-above-expectations-bitcoin-reacts/
