Analysts at JPMorgan warn that more than 20% of Strategy’s market cap sits in passive indices, which are now threatening to delist it.
Summary
- Michael Saylor’s Strategy could lose $2.8 billion if MSCI removes it from its passive indices
- The Bitcoin treasury firm could lose a further $8.8 billion out of its $50 billion market cap if others follow
- MSCI is currently considering a proposal to exclude crypto treasury firms from its benchmark indices
Michael Salyor’s Bitcoin buying machine could face a reckoning that could wipe out more than 20% of its total market cap. On Wednesday, November 19, analysts at JPMorgan warned of the impending decision that could exclude Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) from MSCI’s passive funds.
Strategy risks losing $2.8 billion if MSCI, a major index provider, excludes it from its benchmarks, including the MSCI USA and MSCI World. The largest Bitcoin (BTC) treasury firm could lose a further $8.8 billion if other indices, warns JPMorgan analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou.
These fears came after MSCI revealed last month that it is consulting on a move to exclude crypto treasury firms from its indices. The rule would apply to companies for whom crypto represents 50% or more of their total assets. The decision will be announced on January 15, 2026.
Why Strategy needs indices
Instead of picking stocks directly, many retail and institutional investors choose to invest in passive benchmark indices. These indices enable investors to pick stocks based on geography and market cap, while diversifying their risk.
For this reason, inclusion in these indices is highly beneficial. Namely, it brings capital without any individual investor having to buy their stocks actively. Conversely, excluding an index could be catastrophic, especially for large companies.
In addition to the MSCI indices, Strategy is also included in the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 600. Despite previous attempts and having met the technical requirements, Strategy was not included in the S&P 500, the most popular benchmark index.
What Saylor says…
Saylor isn’t losing sleep over what his critics say or Bitcoin’s volatility. Bitcoin, he argues, has actually been declining for years, falling from around 80% in 2020 to roughly 50% today.
Eventually, he expects BTC will settle at about 1.5 times the volatility of the S&P 500 — while also outperforming it.
Despite BTC sliding nearly 11% this past week to around $91,700, Saylor told Fox Business that it was business as usual.
Volatility, he said, flushes out weak hands: “The company is engineered to take an 80% to 90% drawdown and keep on ticking… I think we’re pretty indestructible.”
Meanwhile, MicroStrategy keeps stacking. The firm now holds 649,870 BTC (about $59.5 billion), and Saylor said its balance sheet is solid even though the stock has cooled off, dipping to a one-year low before rebounding slightly.
He also shot down rumors that the company had sold any Bitcoin, quipping on X that MicroStrategy had actually been buying every day between Nov. 10–16 — and then revealing a fresh purchase of 8,178 BTC worth $835 million. With an average cost basis of $74,443, the company remains comfortably in the green.
Institutional interest isn’t slowing, either: Canada’s CPP pension fund recently disclosed an $80 million stake in MicroStrategy, while Florida’s pension fund reported a $47 million position. Saylor’s message, essentially: Bitcoin is fine, MicroStrategy is fine, and if anyone’s panicking, it definitely isn’t him.
Source: https://crypto.news/strategy-risks-bloodbath-if-major-index-ditches-it-jpmorgan/
