Key Insights
- Altcoin season signals appear even while the index sits at a very low level.
- Only 5% of the altcoin supply is in profit, showing a deep reset.
- Analysts say early rotation signs may form as Bitcoin stabilizes.
Altcoins have spent November in a very weak place. Crypto prices fell hard, and many traders left the market.
Bitcoin stayed stronger, so most people stopped looking at altcoins. But the latest data shows something unusual.
Several signals point to a setup that does not match old cycles. These signals suggest that an altcoin season may begin from deep capitulation instead of strength.
This is why many analysts are watching the unfolding closely.
Signals Look Different From Past Altcoin Season Cycles
The first major sign comes from the Altcoin Season Index, which is near 27. This number is very low and shows traders are not focused on altcoins.
In older cycles, strong altcoin seasons began when the index was weak, not strong. The same setup is forming now.
Another sign comes from profit data. Glassnode shows that only about 5% of the altcoin supply is in profit.
This means most holders are still at a loss. When almost everyone is in a loss, it usually means a full reset has already happened.
This type of reset often becomes the base for a later rise.
Bitcoin is not in the same place. Bitcoin holders still have higher profit levels. This creates a rare split where altcoins completed their pain first while the cryptocurrency is only starting to cool down.
This split did not happen in 2017 or 2021. It is one of the reasons this setup looks unusual.
Market Structure May Follow Old Altcoin Seasons
The altcoin market cap chart also shows a pattern that looks close to the one seen in 2017 and 2021.
In those years, altcoins first dropped sharply and then recovered very fast.
In 2017, altcoins gained almost 190% in two weeks. In 2021, they gained about 101% in three weeks. These moves came right after deep pain periods.
The same first leg has happened again. Altcoins have already dropped sharply. But the drop this time is deeper than before.
That is why many analysts say the next strong move can still appear, because the cleanup phase was larger than usual.
Analysts Point to Early Signs of a Turn
Several well-known analysts say the early stage of an altcoin setup may already be forming.
CryptoELITES says a strong altcoin season may come in early 2026 because the reset is already in place.
This theory works together with the Bitcoin top theory slated for early next year. However, for this to work, Bitcoin and Ethereum must first set up clear bottoms.
Another analyst, Chiefy, says, “Bitcoin Season 2025 ends today,” explaining that Bitcoin’s strong period may be slowing down.
This theory could be a tad exaggerated, considering the current state of the crypto market.
A third analyst, AltcoinVector, says the Bitcoin–altcoin cycle is “starting to change,” even though Bitcoin is still forming its base.
These views do not confirm that an altcoin season will start right away, but they show many researchers see the same unusual structure. In older cycles, Bitcoin topped first, and then altcoins ran.
This time, altcoins reached their lowest point early, while Bitcoin is still stabilizing. That is why this altcoin season setup is different from past cycles. And also a bit harder to predict.
Source: https://www.thecoinrepublic.com/2025/11/20/altcoin-season-from-capitulation-why-analysts-think-the-cycle-is-flipping/
