Peter Brandt Says Bitcoin May Not Hit $200K Until 2029

Despite the BTC price slump, Bitcoiners found fresh optimism when US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent made a surprise visit to the launch of Pubkey DC, a Bitcoin-themed bar in Washington. Many people interpreted it as a strong signal of growing federal support for digital assets. While sentiment is still split between bearish and bullish extremes, Brandt maintains that the current pullback is a healthy reset that could lay the groundwork for Bitcoin’s next major cycle.

Bitcoin $200K Unlikely This Year

Veteran trader Peter Brandt pushed back against the wave of ultra-bullish Bitcoin forecasts circulating among crypto executives, and said he does not expect the world’s largest cryptocurrency to reach $200,000 anytime soon. Instead, Brandt believes Bitcoin may only hit that level in the third quarter of 2029, which is almost four years later than predictions from high-profile people like Arthur Hayes, Tom Lee, Brian Armstrong, and Cathie Wood.

In an X post on Thursday, Brandt explained that he is still a “long-term bull on Bitcoin,” but warned that many people are underestimating the duration and depth of Bitcoin’s current reset phase. His outlook is strikingly more conservative than the $200,000 end-of-year target Hayes and Lee stuck to as recently as October. 

It also stands in stark contrast to the even more aggressive $1 million Bitcoin projections from Coinbase’s Armstrong and ARK Invest’s Wood, both of whom believe the benchmark asset could hit seven figures by 2030. Brandt, by comparison, expects Bitcoin to be trading at roughly one-fifth of that level by the same time.

Bitcoin’s recent price action worsened the divide between institutional forecasts and current market reality. After peaking at a fresh all-time high of close to $126,000 on Oct. 5, the crypto has been stuck in a persistent downtrend, and even fell to $86,000 this week. Despite brief periods of recovery, selling pressure stayed intense, with analysts saying that institutional entities have been offloading Bitcoin at historic levels. 

BTC’s price action over the past 24 hours (Source: CoinMarketCap)

Charles Edwards of Capriole Investments pointed out that Bitcoin has “never seen this much institutional selling as a percentage of Coinbase volume in all history,” and also mentioned that there has been a noticeable structural shift in market behavior.

Still, Brandt sees the pullback as ultimately beneficial for the long-term trajectory of Bitcoin. He described the ongoing “dumping” as the healthiest development the market could experience, and argued that reset periods like this often clear excess leverage, reset sentiment, and lay the groundwork for a more sustainable advance. 

Earlier in October, he also compared Bitcoin’s current chart structure to the soybean market of the 1970s, which formed a major top before plunging 50% as fundamentals shifted. The analogy suggests that Bitcoin could experience similar deep corrections before the next major bull cycle emerges.

Treasury Secretary Drops In at Bitcoin Bar

Despite Brandt’s prediction, some Bitcoiners are looking for signs everywhere that the crypto king has not lost its spark. Heads in the Bitcoin community certainly turned on Thursday after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent made an unexpected appearance at the launch of Pubkey DC, a new Bitcoin-themed bar in Washington. 

The unannounced visit immediately drew praise from people in the crypto industry, many of whom interpreted it as a powerful signal of growing federal openness toward Bitcoin. Strive CIO Ben Werkman called the moment potentially historic, and said it may eventually be seen as an obvious turning point. Nakamoto’s vice president of investor relations, Steven Lubka, described it as “the sign you have been waiting for,” while other well-known Bitcoin advocates—including analyst Fred Krueger, Gemini’s Jeff Tiller, podcaster Natalie Brunell, and Bitcoin Policy Institute co-founder David Zell—also welcomed Bessent’s appearance as bullish for the asset.

Bessent has long been seen as crypto-friendly. Since his Treasury nomination in late 2024, the secretary publicly supported expanding America’s leadership in digital assets and backed several crypto-focused bills like the GENIUS Act. Earlier this year, he even stated that the Treasury was exploring budget-neutral strategies for accumulating Bitcoin for a potential Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. 

Some analysts tried to connect Bessent’s outing to Bitcoin’s recent price weakness, though others pushed back on the idea. Popular trader MacroScope said signals like this often go unnoticed during downturns but later prove meaningful in hindsight. Santiment’s Sanbase platform showed social media commentary split between deeply bearish predictions calling for a drop below $70,000—or even as low as $20,000—and more optimistic expectations targeting a rebound toward $100,000 to $130,000.

The opening of Pubkey DC follows the viral success of its original New York location, which became a local sensation after launching in late 2022. It later gained national attention in September of 2024 when then-presidential candidate Donald Trump made a campaign appearance there.