Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin Crash Bottom, Eyes $200K by Year-End

TLDR

• Bitcoin plunged to a six-month low below $82,000 after a sharp two-month decline.
• Arthur Hayes predicts that Bitcoin’s crash may be nearing its bottom but advises patience before investing.
• Hayes suggests that a rebound in Bitcoin could follow a drop in AI tech stocks and increased liquidity.
• Raoul Pal draws parallels between the current Bitcoin crash and previous major corrections in crypto cycles.
• Pal believes the current oversold conditions align with past de-risking cycles, which led to recoveries.

Bitcoin crashed to a six-month low on Friday, falling below $82,000. This marked a sharp two-month decline from the late October peak near $126,000. The drop reflected growing concerns about liquidity, particularly the decline in USD liquidity.

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes weighed in on the situation, commenting that the Bitcoin crash might soon reach its bottom. In an X post, he suggested that the cryptocurrency’s decline could be nearing its end. However, Hayes advised investors to remain patient before making any moves.

Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin Bottom Nearing

Arthur Hayes forecasted that Bitcoin’s crash might soon stabilize, but he warned against rushing into the market. “We may be nearing the bottom for Bitcoin,” Hayes wrote, although he cautioned investors to hold off for now. He advised waiting for U.S. stocks to correct before jumping back into the crypto market.

Hayes also highlighted the importance of future money printing, which he believes will fuel the next wave of Bitcoin liquidity. According to him, the key to Bitcoin’s future surge lies in AI tech stocks’ significant decline. “Once that happens, the liquidity for Bitcoin will increase,” Hayes said.

The prediction comes after Bitcoin’s price hit around $90,000, with Hayes suggesting it could fall to between $80,000 and $85,000 before rebounding. Despite the short-term dip, Hayes still expects Bitcoin to surge towards $200,000 by the year-end.

Raoul Pal Draws Parallels with Previous Crypto Cycles

Raoul Pal, in his recent X post, shared concerns about the ongoing Bitcoin crash, attributing it to forced unwinding on trading platforms. He pointed out that this phase resembled past cycles in which surges to new highs followed massive losses. The speed of this decline, Pal noted, was similar to earlier shock movements in crypto cycles.

He also referenced historical data showing multiple large corrections during bullish periods, such as the 72% drop from 2019 to 2020. According to Pal, these types of significant pullbacks were often followed by periods of renewed strength. Pal believes the current oversold conditions align with previous de-risking cycles.

The market has witnessed steep declines before, but quick recoveries have followed these. Many of the sharp pullbacks, such as those in 2016 and 2017, lacked clear external triggers. However, they still set the stage for significant rallies in the long term.

Recent changes in macroeconomic conditions have further complicated Bitcoin’s outlook. CME FedWatch data now suggests that the likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate cut has risen to nearly 71%. This shift comes after John Williams’ comments suggested a near-term rate cut.

Bitcoin’s liquidity is closely tied to macroeconomic trends, and traders are keeping a close eye on these developments. The Fed’s changing stance could either help stabilize the market or add further pressure.

Peter Brandt Predicts Long-Term Bitcoin Surge

Veteran trader Peter Brandt shared his long-term perspective on Bitcoin, predicting a future price of $200,000. He noted, however, that Bitcoin could first drop to $58,000 in the next cycle. This forecast points to a potential rebound around the third quarter of 2029.

Despite the short-term downside risk, Brandt reaffirmed his long-term optimism. He emphasized that he continues to hold Bitcoin at lower entry levels. Brandt’s prediction aligns with the broader outlook that Bitcoin’s crash could eventually lead to a strong recovery.

The post Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin Crash Bottom, Eyes $200K by Year-End appeared first on Blockonomi.