Is Strategy’s Bitcoin Bet Really Near Collapse?

Strategy Inc. is now at the center of a heated dispute after fresh analysis questioned its Bitcoin accounting, solvency outlook and stock-market risk. Moreover, a wave of counter-arguments from analysts has quickly pushed back, challenging the accuracy of the claims and reframing the debate.

Strategy’s Bitcoin Hoard and Cash Squeeze

Strategy Inc. now holds 649,870 Bitcoin, or about 3.26 percent of the total eventual supply, at a cost of $48.37 billion, according to an analysis by independent researcher Shanaka Anslem Perera. In a post on X and a longer report, he said the company’s own filings suggest its funding model may not withstand the next 90 days without major changes.

Perera said Strategy has about $54 million in cash but owes roughly $700 million a year in preferred stock dividends, while its software business runs negative cash flow. That structure leaves the company reliant on raising fresh capital to cover dividends before it can add more Bitcoin.

The 48 Billion Math Error. Source: X

From January through September 2025, Strategy raised $19.5 billion, the analysis says. Perera argues that much of this capital serviced liabilities from earlier fundraises rather than funding new BTC purchases and describes the setup as “borrowing to pay the interest on prior borrowing” as long as markets stay open to new issuance.

Premium Collapse, Index Rules and Market Stress

Perera writes that Strategy’s stock once traded at about twice the value of its underlying Bitcoin, allowing equity issuance that increased Bitcoin per share. He says that premium fell toward one times net asset value in November 2025, so new equity now dilutes holders and halts what he calls the firm’s “accumulation loop.” At the same time, the preferred STRC shares, launched at a 9.0 percent dividend rate in July and raised to 10.5 percent by November, give management room to increase payouts further when the price drops, pushing funding costs higher.

A key date is Jan. 15, 2026, when MSCI is due to decide whether to exclude companies with more than 50 percent of assets in digital currencies from its indices. Strategy has about 77 percent of its assets in Bitcoin, according to the report. Citing JPMorgan estimates, Perera says index funds alone could be forced to sell about $2.8 billion of Strategy stock, with total outflows possibly reaching $8.8 billion, equal to an estimated 15 to 20 percent of the firm’s market value.

Perera links those structural risks to the Oct. 10 Bitcoin sell-off, when BTC fell about 17 percent in 14 hours as order-book depth thinned and billions in leveraged positions liquidated. With Strategy holding more than 3 percent of total BTC supply, he warns that forced sales of around 100,000 coins in similar conditions could strain liquidity. He says Strategy’s claim of 71 years of preferred dividend coverage assumes it can sell about $1 billion of Bitcoin annually without moving the market, an assumption he argues no longer fits recent stress episodes. In his view, the next few months will test whether a listed company can run a “sovereign-style” Bitcoin reserve under quarterly refinancing, index rules and volatile liquidity.

 Analysts Dispute Strategy Collapse Narrative

However, critics argue Shanaka Anslem Perera’s thread misreads Strategy Inc.’s numbers and overstates any 90 day risk. They say SEC filings show a Bitcoin cost basis near 15 billion dollars, not 48 billion, because his figure triple counts capital raised via equity, converts and preferreds. They also note only about 105 million dollars a year is a hard cash preferred obligation, while other preferred classes are cumulative, stock payable or discretionary, so the 700 million dollar “mandatory cash” claim is inaccurate.

Meanwhile, they point out that with roughly 56 billion dollars in Bitcoin net asset value against about 16 billion dollars in debt and preferreds, Strategy carries around 3.5 times collateral coverage. In their view, that structure, plus real BTC reserves, operating revenue and multiple refinancing paths, means the company does not fit any reasonable definition of Ponzi finance.

Finally, they stress that the MSCI process is a consultation rather than automatic index removal and that the October 10 market shock was a liquidation driven liquidity event, not a sign of imminent insolvency. From this perspective, Strategy looks over collateralized and structurally sound, with the debate shifting from survival to how management chooses its next financing steps.

MSTR Tests 175 Dollar Support as Selling Pressure Builds

Meanwhile, Strategy Inc.’s MSTR stock is sitting on the 175 dollar support zone that ForexDoc’s TradingView chart highlights as a key demand area. The share price has slide sharply over recent months and now presses against this blue band, while the stochastic RSI hovers near oversold levels, signaling stretched downside momentum.

MSTR Support Zone Chart. Source: TradingView / X

If sellers push the price below 175 dollars, the chart points to the next major support in the 130 to 140 dollar range, marked by the lower yellow zone where previous consolidation took place. In that case, traders would watch how quickly liquidity appears there and whether buyers can rebuild a base after the current breakdown attempt.