Polymarket gets permission slip: CFTC clears path for first fully regulated US prediction exchange

Polymarket, long billed as the world’s largest prediction market, announced that the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has officially authorized it to operate an intermediated trading platform.

In other words, Polymarket can now onboard brokerages, offer direct customer access, and facilitate trading on U.S. venues — all under the watchful eye of Washington, D.C.

The approval follows a soft launch earlier this month.

Polymarket operated quietly within a closed beta, with just select users placing real-money bets on live contracts.

“The US Exchange is actually live and operational, and people are being onboarded. It’s effectively in a beta test,” founder Shayne Coplan said at the time.

Before that, the CFTC issued a no-action letter clearing the way for the platform to restart operations through its newly acquired entities, QCX and QC Clearing.

What the approval means

Polymarket customers can now trade through futures commission merchants (FCMs) and tap into the familiar plumbing of traditional finance, complete with standard custody arrangements and reporting rails.

It’s a notable shift for a company that once faced enforcement action from the very same regulator now handing it a permission slip.

“People rely on Polymarket because we provide clarity where there is confusion and accountability where there is ambiguity,” Coplan said in a prepared statement Tuesday. “This approval allows us to operate in a way that reflects the maturity and transparency that the U.S. regulatory framework demands. We’re grateful for the constructive engagement with the CFTC and look forward to continuing to demonstrate leadership as a regulated U.S. exchange.”

As part of the amended order, Polymarket has built out the compliance infrastructure that regulators expect from any designated contract market. This includes upgraded surveillance systems (yes, the boring but essential stuff), tougher market supervision policies, refined clearing procedures, and the kind of part-16 regulatory reporting capabilities that only a compliance officer could love. More rules and processes will roll out before the intermediated platform officially launches.

Even with this green light, Polymarket remains firmly bound by the Commodity Exchange Act and all the CFTC regulations that govern designated contract markets — including ongoing self-regulatory obligations. That means plenty of oversight, continued transparency, and safeguards that bring prediction markets closer to traditional futures exchanges than ever before.

For a platform that once lived on the edge of U.S. legality, this moment marks a full-circle reset.

What’s next

Polymarket and its main rival, Kalshi, are now circling opportunities in web3 technologies.

The latest developments mark a stark turnaround. Back in 2022, the CFTC alleged that Polymarket was offering unregistered event-based binary options to U.S. users. The firm paid a $1.4 million penalty to settle the charges and ceased U.S. operations as part of the agreement. 

Fast forward to 2025, the commission reversed course under a new leadership team, with Donald Trump Jr. onto its advisory board.