Bitcoin (BTC) Price: November Losses Break Historical Trend as Whale Activity Shows Early Recovery Signs

TLDR

• Bitcoin is on track to close November with losses of 20.60%, breaking its historically strongest month pattern that usually delivers 40.82% average returns.
• Short-term Bitcoin holders have an average cost basis of $86,787, marking only the third time since early 2024 that prices fell below this key metric.
• Heavy buying activity occurred around $106,000 and $118,000 price levels, with many of these buyers now selling at a loss.
• The number of wallets holding at least 100 Bitcoin increased by 0.47% (91 wallets) since November 11, suggesting whale interest is returning.
• Bitcoin currently trades at $87,305, with analysts suggesting the market faces either a surge in demand or a longer accumulation phase ahead.

Bitcoin is trading at $87,305 after dropping 20.60% during November, according to data from CoinMarketCap. This performance marks a sharp departure from the cryptocurrency’s historical patterns.

November has traditionally been Bitcoin’s strongest performing month. The month typically delivers average returns of 40.82% based on historical data from CoinGlass.

October also failed to meet expectations. The month closed down 3.69% despite usually posting average gains of around 19.92%.

The price decline has pushed Bitcoin below a key technical level. This marks only the third time since early 2024 that Bitcoin’s price has fallen below the lower band of the short-term holders’ cost-basis model.

Short-term holders are defined as investors who have held Bitcoin for less than 155 days. According to CoinGlass, these holders have an average realized price of $86,787.

Heavy Buying Activity Creates Selling Pressure

Bitfinex analysts pointed to unusual buying patterns as a factor in the recent price drop. Trading activity around the $106,000 and $118,000 price levels was heavier than typical market conditions.

These buyers are now experiencing losses. A deeper layer of holders is “capitulating at a loss,” according to the Bitfinex report.

The market now stands at a crossroads. Bitfinex analysts outlined two possible scenarios for Bitcoin’s near-term direction.

The first path involves a resurgence in demand. The second option would see the market enter a longer and potentially deeper accumulation phase.

Whale Wallets Show Modest Growth

Some early indicators suggest demand may be returning among large holders. Crypto sentiment platform Santiment reported wallet data in a Tuesday post on X.

The number of wallets holding at least 100 Bitcoin has increased by 0.47% since November 11. This represents an addition of 91 wallets in the whale category.

Bitcoin recovered modestly after dropping near $80,000 last week. The cryptocurrency now hovers around $88,000 but remains in a rangebound pattern.

Market participants are monitoring U.S. Federal Reserve policy decisions. Softer economic data has increased expectations for a December interest rate cut.

Speculation about potential Fed leadership changes has also entered market discussions. Reports suggest Kevin Hassett, a close adviser to Donald Trump, could be nominated as the next Fed chair.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission announced a new “CEO Innovation Council” on Tuesday. Acting Chair Caroline D. Pham is seeking nominations for the council, which will provide guidance on digital-asset regulation and stablecoins. Nominations are due by December 8.

December historically shows quieter performance for Bitcoin. The month has posted average returns of 4.75% since 2013.

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