Why $88,800 Could Decide Bitcoin’s Next Big Move, According to Alphractal’s CEO

After a mid-week relief, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading a little above $87,000, but it still stands below a key level that could determine its next move.

A new observation suggests that a failure to rise above $88,800 could trigger more profit-taking, as active investors remain at a loss and market pressure builds.

Bitcoin Battles the $88.8K Line

Bitcoin’s position below the Active Realized Price, currently around $88,800, has become a crucial focal point, according to Alphractal Founder and CEO Joao Wedson. The Active Realized Price is indicative of the average cost basis of active investors, excluding lost, dormant, or untouched coins, and therefore represents what the most engaged participants actually paid for their BTC.

When Bitcoin trades above this level, the environment generally stabilizes as most active investors sit in profit, which ends up easing the selling pressure, and the market tends to find a firmer footing. However, with BTC still below this threshold, sentiment shifts. Wedson explained that this setup can make investors uneasy, and historically, such conditions encourage increased short-term selling, particularly if the price struggles to reclaim that level promptly.

The founder also added that this is not a call for panic, but it’s important to pay close attention. If the asset fails to recover the Active Realized Price in the coming days, additional profit-taking could emerge. On the other hand, a decisive move back above $88,800 would mean strength, renewed confidence, and active investors will be back in profit. This outcome typically alleviates market pressure and supports more constructive momentum.

Beyond technical pressure, Santiment recently found that wallets holding at least 100 BTC have risen by 91 since November 11, while smaller wallets, especially those with 0.1 BTC or less, have declined. This pattern is historically linked to long-term price strength as retail capitulates and whales accumulate.

Historically Favorable Zone

Another important on-chain indicator is now flashing a historically significant signal. The Puell Multiple has dropped back into the “Discount zone,” meaning miners are earning less than their usual average and may be under financial stress. When this indicator falls below 1, it often signals periods when Bitcoin is trading below its fair value.

In past cycles, major market rebounds have frequently begun from these discount levels. While this does not guarantee an immediate bottom, it has repeatedly aligned with the start of strong recovery phases. With the Puell Multiple returning to this range, the market may be entering a lower-risk, higher-reward environment where new uptrends typically begin.

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