Apple May Lead Samsung in 2025 Smartphone Shipments, Ending 14-Year Streak

• Apple’s iPhone 17 series boosts early 2025 shipments with 12% U.S. growth and 18% in China over predecessors.

• Resurgent replacement cycles from COVID-era buyers fuel Apple’s lead in annual volumes.

• 358 million second-hand iPhones resold by Q2 2025 strengthen the iOS ecosystem, supporting long-term dominance with 19.4% global share.

Apple surpasses Samsung in 2025 smartphone shipments for the first time in 14 years, projecting 243 million units. Discover key drivers like iPhone 17 sales and ecosystem growth. Stay ahead—explore iPhone innovations today!

What is driving Apple’s lead over Samsung in 2025 smartphone shipments?

Apple’s lead over Samsung in 2025 smartphone shipments stems from robust iPhone 17 series demand and a timely replacement cycle. According to Counterpoint Research, Apple expects to ship 243 million units, edging out Samsung’s 235 million for a 19.4% global market share—the first such lead since 2011. Factors like holiday sales surges and ecosystem loyalty position Apple strongly.

How is iPhone 17 demand contributing to Apple’s shipment advantage?

The iPhone 17 series, launched in September 2025, has seen exceptional reception, with Counterpoint Research describing a “bumper” holiday sales period. In the U.S., first-four-week sales rose 12% compared to the iPhone 16 period, excluding the 16e model, including strong performance from the lighter iPhone Air variant. In China, Apple’s largest overseas market, iPhone 17 sales increased 18% over the predecessor during the same timeframe. Yang Wang, senior analyst at Counterpoint Research, noted, “Beyond the highly positive market reception for the iPhone 17 series, the key driver behind the upgraded shipment outlook lies in the replacement cycle reaching its inflection point. Consumers who purchased smartphones during the COVID-19 boom are now entering their upgrade phase.” This demand surge has propelled Apple’s early 2025 volumes, contrasting with Samsung’s challenges from intensifying competition in low- and mid-range segments by Chinese brands. As a result, Samsung’s global share is projected to dip to 18.7%, underscoring Apple’s strategic timing in product releases.

Frequently Asked Questions

Will Apple maintain its lead over Samsung in smartphone shipments beyond 2025?

Yes, Apple is positioned to sustain its lead through the decade, per Counterpoint Research, thanks to 358 million second-hand iPhones resold between 2023 and Q2 2025, building a loyal iOS base ripe for upgrades. Future plans include the affordable iPhone 17e in 2026 and a foldable model, targeting emerging markets and expanding price tiers to capture growing aspirational demand.

What factors are helping Apple outperform Samsung in global smartphone markets this year?

A trade truce between the United States and China has eased tariff threats, enabling smoother supply chains and cost efficiencies for Apple in emerging regions. Combined with a weaker U.S. dollar enhancing overseas purchasing power and resilient economic conditions in key markets, these elements support Apple’s 243 million unit projection. Analysts like Yang Wang from Counterpoint Research highlight how structural tailwinds, including ecosystem compatibility and device renewals, solidify this outperformance.

Key Takeaways

• Record iPhone Shipments: Apple’s 243 million units in 2025 mark a 19.4% market share, surpassing Samsung’s 235 million for the first time since 2011, driven by iPhone 17 holiday success.
• Ecosystem Strength: Over 358 million resold iPhones by Q2 2025 create a vast upgrade pipeline, sustaining growth amid Samsung’s mid-range pressures from Chinese competitors.
• Future Innovations: Plans for iPhone 17e, foldables, and a 2027 redesign, plus Siri enhancements, position Apple to dominate through ecosystem loyalty and emerging market expansion.

Conclusion

Apple’s projected lead over Samsung in 2025 smartphone shipments reflects a confluence of strong iPhone 17 demand, a maturing replacement cycle, and robust iOS ecosystem retention, as detailed by Counterpoint Research analysts. With strategic expansions into affordable segments and innovative features like improved Siri integration, Apple is poised for sustained market dominance. Investors and consumers alike should watch how these dynamics evolve, potentially reshaping global smartphone trends in the years ahead.