Krugman Suggests Bitcoin Decline Ties to Trump’s Poll Slump and Crypto Policies

• Paul Krugman argues Bitcoin’s decline mirrors Trump’s weakening position in polls.

• Krugman highlights how Trump’s campaign promises and family ties to crypto have fueled Bitcoin as a ‘Trump trade’ asset.

• Despite volatility, prediction markets like Myriad show over 70% likelihood of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 soon, per recent data.

Explore why economist Paul Krugman ties Bitcoin’s price drop to Trump polls. Unpack the ‘Trump trade’ impact on crypto and key market insights for investors in 2025.

What is the connection between Bitcoin’s price decline and President Trump’s polls according to Paul Krugman?

Bitcoin’s price decline is no coincidence amid President Trump’s stumbling polls, claims Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman. In his recent analysis, Krugman posits that Bitcoin has become intertwined with Trump’s political strength due to the president’s pro-crypto stance and industry support. This linkage has led to heightened volatility as Trump’s influence wanes, pulling the cryptocurrency’s value down alongside his approval ratings.

How has Trump’s pro-crypto policies influenced Bitcoin’s market performance?

President Trump’s embrace of cryptocurrency during his campaign and administration has significantly boosted Bitcoin’s profile and price. His promises to support the digital asset sector, coupled with substantial donations from crypto industry leaders, positioned Bitcoin as a beneficiary of his policies. For instance, following Trump’s election victory, Bitcoin surged dramatically, reaching new all-time highs shortly after his inauguration in early 2025.

Trump’s family ventures in the space, including controversial digital asset projects, further amplified this connection. The launch of a Solana-based meme coin associated with Trump just before assuming office exemplified this alignment, drawing both enthusiasm and criticism. However, external factors like the ongoing trade tensions with China have introduced volatility. On October 10, 2025, a presidential threat against China triggered record liquidations exceeding $19 billion in the crypto market, exacerbating Bitcoin’s downturn.

Economist Paul Krugman, in his Substack publication titled “The Trump Trade is Unraveling,” elaborates on this dynamic. He states, “Trump’s power is visibly diminishing, so the price of Bitcoin, which has in effect become a bet on Trumpism, has plunged.” Krugman points to Trump’s receipt of industry support—described by critics as akin to bribes—as a key driver. This has made Bitcoin perform like a speculative asset tied to political outcomes rather than fundamental utility.

Supporting data from market trackers like CoinGecko shows Bitcoin trading at approximately $90,348 as of late October 2025, down nearly 30% from its peak of $126,080 earlier in the month. After dipping to a seven-month low near $81,000, it has shown some recovery, but analysts warn of potential bear market entry. Despite these challenges, optimism persists in prediction platforms such as Myriad, operated by Dastan, where users assign a 70% probability to Bitcoin climbing back to $100,000 over dropping to $69,000.

Krugman’s critique extends to Bitcoin’s intrinsic value. He questions its practical applications, noting, “What is Bitcoin good for? It isn’t money—that is, it isn’t a medium of exchange, something you can use to make payments. It isn’t a hedge against inflation.” Instead, he compares it to a volatile technology stock, heavily influenced by external narratives like the “Trump trade.” This perspective underscores the risks of political entanglement in cryptocurrency markets, where policy shifts can lead to sharp price swings.

Broader market context reveals that while Trump’s pro-crypto laws have been enacted, macroeconomic pressures and geopolitical events continue to dominate. The cryptocurrency sector’s maturity is tested as it navigates these influences, with Bitcoin’s resilience demonstrated by its partial rebound. Financial experts emphasize the need for diversified strategies amid such uncertainties, drawing on historical patterns where political events have amplified crypto volatility.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why is Paul Krugman criticizing Bitcoin’s ties to President Trump?

Paul Krugman criticizes Bitcoin’s connection to Trump due to the president’s pro-crypto policies and family financial interests in the industry, which he views as influencing market prices politically. He argues this makes Bitcoin a speculative ‘Trump trade’ rather than a stable asset, vulnerable to shifts in Trump’s popularity and power.

Will Bitcoin recover from its recent decline linked to Trump polls?

Bitcoin’s recovery potential remains strong despite the current dip tied to Trump polls, with prediction markets indicating a high likelihood of surpassing $100,000 soon. Factors like ongoing institutional adoption and technological advancements support a rebound, though investors should monitor political and economic developments closely.

Key Takeaways

• Political Influence on Crypto: Bitcoin’s price movements are increasingly linked to U.S. political figures like President Trump, highlighting the risks of regulatory dependency.
• Krugman’s Economic Critique: The economist views Bitcoin as lacking real-world utility, functioning more as a volatile bet on political outcomes than a reliable financial tool.
• Market Optimism Persists: Despite recent drops, data from platforms like Myriad suggests over 70% chance of Bitcoin reaching $100,000, encouraging cautious investment approaches.

Conclusion

As economist Paul Krugman’s analysis reveals, Bitcoin’s price decline intertwines with President Trump’s poll struggles and the broader implications of pro-crypto policies. This ‘Trump trade’ phenomenon underscores the cryptocurrency’s sensitivity to political winds, even as it demonstrates resilience amid volatility. Looking ahead, investors should stay informed on regulatory shifts and market data, positioning themselves for potential recoveries in the evolving digital asset landscape.